Greetings! Why does a Russian need Chinese money? Well, for example, for a tourist trip to the Middle Kingdom, for additional investment income, for direct payment for goods from Chinese suppliers ...
And if you can buy dollars and euros from us literally at every corner, then the Chinese yuan is still considered an exotic currency. So today we will talk about how to buy yuan in Russia.
By the way, experienced travelers do not recommend bringing rubles to China. The exchange rate will be simply predatory, and they change Russian currency there is not everywhere. What to look for when buying Chinese currency?
Just a couple of years ago, "exotic" currencies were sold in Moscow at a godlessly high rate. It was cheaper and already in China to change them for yuan. It is hard to believe that such a double conversion was more profitable than a direct purchase of the currency!
Fortunately, the situation has gradually improved in recent years. In banks and exchange offices, if desired, you can already find a more or less acceptable rate.
Here you can even filter exchange offices by Moscow metro stations. I think it's very convenient.
Another important point, which you should pay attention to when buying - the minimum amount of the transaction. Sometimes a seemingly attractive rate implies a purchase of at least 50,000 yuan. And yet - in some points, the amount necessary for the exchange must be reserved in advance.
Buying cash yuan
I have already begun to talk about this method a little higher. In large Russian cities, there are no problems with buying Chinese currency at all. For example, to buy yuan in Moscow, go to the link I gave above, limit the search to the nearest metro station, choose an acceptable exchange rate and the minimum purchase amount - and go!
In my opinion, it is safer and more reliable to buy yuan for rubles not in commercial exchangers, but in bank branches. A win-win option is the Russian branch of the Bank of China (we have a “daughter” of a Chinese bank called “Bank of China (Elos)”.
Non-cash yuan
To get access to non-cash yuan, the easiest way is to open a bank deposit in this currency.
Important point! In any Russian bank (for example, the same Sberbank), no one will give you cash at the end of the deposit term. And you will not be allowed to replenish the deposit with Chinese currency either. The money in the account will simply be tied to the current exchange rate of the Celestial Empire.
But why do we need Russian banks? We go to one of the branches of the same Elos Bank of China. Here you can open a deposit in the amount of 5,000 yuan for a period of 90, 180 or 360 days. The yield of such a deposit is low: from 1.25% to 2.25% per annum. But for us this is not the most important thing.
The fact is that by opening a deposit in the Bank of China, we can issue plastic card Expresspay Chinese payment system UnionPay. What for? Well, firstly, this card is nominated in yuan. Secondly, it is guaranteed to be accepted for payment throughout the Celestial Empire.
Thirdly, it is very convenient to pay with such a card when ordering goods in Chinese online stores. The Expresspay card allows you to avoid double conversion through dollars. By the way, please note that this system, like the Western Visa or MasterCard, has a procedure!
Participate in trading on the stock exchange
If you need large amounts regularly, then the most profitable and easiest way to buy Chinese currency is to participate in foreign exchange trading directly.
Well, not directly, of course, but through one of the Russian brokers that give access to the international currency market, for example, through or. Of course you have to pay additional commission(and most likely not one). But the exchange rate is still much more favorable, and in the end it will turn out cheaper than buying cash yuan at exchange offices in Moscow.
By the way, the yuan is one of the few whose exchange rate is tightly regulated by the central bank (unfortunately, not quite anymore). Considering that the Chinese economy is gradually switching to the domestic market, the country no longer needs a weak currency. This means that the yuan will only strengthen against the ruble.
P.S. A joke on the subject. Or maybe not a joke anymore?
A pragmatist buys dollars, an optimist buys euros, and a truly far-sighted Russian buys Chinese yuan...
What do you think about this? And which way do you usually use to buy?
From October 1, the Chinese yuan will officially enter the currency basket of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Now it includes the US dollar, euro, Japanese yen, British pound sterling. /еpochtimes.ru/
Yuan is now considered " freely usable currency”, which can be settled with the IMF. AT currency basket The IMF yuan came in third with an 11% share. At the same time, the dollar remained at the same level - about 40%, the share of the euro decreased from 37% to 31%. The yen will be in the basket 8% instead of 9%, the pound - 8% instead of 11%.
The euro lost the most from the inclusion of the yuan in the currency basket. “The value of the euro in international settlements is declining, since it is no longer so dominant in international trade,” explained the situation. Rolf Langhammer.
Reducing the share of the euro in the currency basket will do her good, Henning Vöpel believes. A fall in demand for the euro will lead to a depreciation of its exchange rate, which will increase the export of European goods.
Inclusion in the IMF basket is a matter of prestige
First of all, the inclusion of the yuan in the IMF basket is prestigious for China. “There was no dispute about the inclusion of the yuan in the currency basket, because this issue is of little concern to the international community. Becoming a member of a small club is, of course, relatively prestigious, even if many have not heard of its existence,” says Mark Williams. However, the inclusion of a currency in the IMF basket usually does not increase demand for it, he said.
“Despite the inclusion in the currency basket, most likely, the yuan will continue to depreciate, but more slowly. The Chinese authorities will try to reduce the exchange rate of the yuan gradually,” said Diana Choileva. If the yuan had not been included in the currency basket, its exchange rate could have collapsed sharply, which would have affected the global economy.
Free conversion of the yuan not earlier than 10-15 years
The inclusion of the yuan in the IMF basket will encourage the Chinese authorities to take further steps towards free currency conversion, said Hennig Vöpel. Now the yuan cannot be considered a freely convertible currency, since the Chinese authorities keep it in a tight currency band and restrict the movement of capital. They artificially lower the yuan exchange rate to stimulate exports.
In the long run, China needs a floating exchange rate, but the transition to it may take 10 to 15 years. However, the PRC authorities themselves are more optimistic - they intend to achieve free currency conversion by 2020. “To be a reserve currency, the country that owns it needs to invest it somewhere, so you have to have huge investable assets. China doesn't have them. It does not have a bond market with fixed rate… It will take 10-15 years to develop it,” says Jim Rickards.
Since the value of the yuan cannot be set by the market, the government artificially pegs the yuan to the dollar. In this scenario, the inclusion of the yuan in the basket will increase the weight of the dollar in it, which is contrary to the original idea of the IMF. Chinese President Xi Jinping once again announced that he would continue to pursue market reforms and liberalize the financial sector, but there will be no noticeable weakening of control in the coming years: the liberalization of the financial and currency markets China will negatively affect the stability of the Chinese economy and significantly increase the likelihood of a "hard landing", according to a review by Sberbank.
Experts are skeptical about the immediate prospects for the yuan. “When you decide to hold your reserves in one currency or another, you thereby seek to protect yourself from possible fluctuations in the exchange rates of others. monetary units. But you will not achieve this goal with a currency like the yuan, because its rate is pegged to a currency basket, in which the dollar occupies the most important place, ”said the former IfW vice president.
If earlier everyone was worried about the dollar, now progressive Russians are interested in the yuan forecast for 2018. Recently, the yuan was added to the IMF's currency basket, so it is possible that soon, along with the dollar and the euro, almost every resident of Russia will be interested in yuan forecasts.
According to the Central Bank, on January 18, 2018, 10 yuan cost 87.979 rubles. At the same time, if prior to 2016 there were noticeable jumps in quotes, now the situation has normalized and the rate remains within acceptable limits.
If we consider the dynamics over the past few years, the value of money has steadily increased. If in 2011 it was necessary to pay 5.11 Russian rubles for 1 yuan, then in 2016, according to the Central Bank, the figure approached 12.71.
According to forecasts, the yuan is already successfully competing with the dollar. The successful growth of the Chinese economy with its multi-billion dollar turnover allows the currency to successfully fuel the interest of analysts.
Those who wanted to make a little extra money on the fluctuations of the yuan will have to be disappointed. In the coming periods, the Chinese currency will behave stably both in relation to the ruble and in the case of other banknotes. Therefore, investing in Chinese money is one of the best ways to invest in currency today.
Large jumps in the Russian ruble are also not expected. Experts say that the currency will have a stable exchange rate both within the country and on the territory of other states.
Reasons for the stability of the Chinese currency:
- Large volumes of exports and foreign trade operations
- Competent regulation of the currency from the side Central Bank China: balance between devaluation and increase in output
- scale domestic economy, relatively low imports and low dependence on the financial condition of other countries
- The recent decline in oil prices
The dynamics of the yuan
To the ruble for the last 18 years (the price of 1 yuan in rubles):
To the dollar for the last 5 years (the price of 1 yuan in dollars):
What does the course depend on?
The value of Chinese money, like any other currency, has always been based on its relation to the US dollar. The currency situation in many countries of the world depends on the size of US foreign trade economic operations.
However, in 2015, the Chinese government decided to move away from such calculations and began to take measures to liberalize Chinese banknotes. Rates are now set based on a basket of currencies. Today, along with the dollar, it includes the euro, British pounds and Japanese yen. If we trace the economic statistics from this period, then financial position The PRC began to develop quite successfully.
Measures were also taken to minimize losses from the oil issue and prevent the depreciation of money. The policy towards the Chinese currency was tightly regulated by the state. However, the forecasts for the Chinese yuan in 2018 do not contain information about the introduction of any restrictions, so this measure can be attributed to the already obsolete.
Now the position of the yuan is quite stable: it is one of the few currencies in the world that is associated with reliability and permanence. China is steadily moving towards winning economic leadership on the world stage, and the strengthening of the yuan only helps it in this.
Threats to the stability of Chinese banknotes could be huge external debt and capital outflows from the country. Many corporations from developed countries placed their production in China because of cheap labor. Now wages in China are rising steadily, and this could become a serious problem over the next few years.
Trouble is to be expected state budget: When a recession sets in, a negative balance can become a serious obstacle to successfully overcoming difficult times.
Forecasting the future fate of the currency
Experts approach the forecasts of the yuan against the ruble for 2018 cautiously. If everything is more or less clear with the Chinese side, but Russian economy likes to throw up very unpleasant surprises from time to time. The oil attachment of the Russian ruble exchange rate prevents modern analysts from making any clear forecasts on the ratio of the two currencies.
When evaluating fluctuations, experts should take into account the fact that the PRC government deliberately underestimates official course, fearing the depreciation of the yuan. This helps China stimulate economic growth and helps in foreign economic activity. For Russia, this information is of little use: our rates are formed mainly at the expense of the oil market.
If we take Sberbank's forecasts for the ruble and yuan as a basis, then by the end of the year we will buy 1 Chinese yuan for 10.4 rubles. Since there are quite a lot of opinions about what the course will actually become in the future, most financial institutions prefer to stick to this mark and build their financial forecasts based on official figures.
However, some are still confident that the yuan against the ruble at the end of 2018 will be even lower: the value of the currency will fall to below 10 rubles. Experts believe that the yuan is waiting for a depreciation of about 10%, so the establishment of such a rate is quite realistic.
If for some such indicators are a sign of the stability and prosperity of the Republic of China, then others explain this by low demand for the yuan. Moreover, there are many financial analysts who associate the exchange rate of Chinese banknotes with US dollars. And even if China itself claims that such dependence has long been overcome, some experts still scold the Chinese governments for the lack of floating exchange rates and too strong connection with the dollar.
Video of the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies on the prospects for the yuan:
Time to think about investing
Every year more and more Russians re-register their deposits in dollars and euros for similar ones in yuan. Relations between the Russian Federation and China, which are getting better every month, fuel such a demand for the Chinese currency. Experts are positive about the decision to invest money in the yuan, but warn of possible drawbacks.
It is not possible to quickly make a fortune on this currency. It will take many years before the appreciation of the yuan will bring tangible benefits to ordinary citizens. However, as a way of long-term investment with low risks, buying yuan is a good investment.
Investments in yuan do not look very attractive, especially against the backdrop of investments in the dollar
Photo: Zoooom/Depositphotos.com
Investing in Chinese currency is an interesting way to save money from ruble depreciation. However, while there is practically nowhere to invest the yuan, nothing threatens the monopoly of the dollar in Russia.
De-dollarization of the whole country
After the visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping to Russia, the authorities again started talking about the need to get rid of the dollar monopoly. The countries agreed to increase the share of settlements in national currencies and stimulate the issuance of debt instruments. And banks that connect to Chinese or Russian payment systems, as well as use direct correspondent accounts and participate in cross-border transfers, are promised support.
So far, despite all the efforts of our financial authorities, the American currency prevails in settlements between Chinese and Russian companies. According to various estimates, it accounts for about 75-80% of the trade turnover of the two countries. According to the chief economist of Alfa-Bank Natalia Orlova, the problem is that a significant share (57%) of exports to China falls on the oil and gas sector. Nevertheless, the expert notes, the importance of the yuan in trade is growing. Over five years (2013-2018), the share of the yuan in Russian exports increased from 1.7% to 4.5%, and in imports - from 2.2% to 19.3%. Largely due to the fact that the Chinese authorities themselves are interested in expanding their currency to international markets, the expert points out. The IMF granted Beijing's application and since 2016 has included the yuan in its currency basket. In addition to the Chinese currency, it contains the dollar, euro, British pound and yen.
For Russia, the Chinese currency is rather exotic. Constant fluctuations in quotes, limited supply of banks and high exchange spreads - all this makes the yuan an extremely unpopular tool for savings. Unlike the dollar, which contains the majority currency deposits Russians. As of May 1, according to the Central Bank, every fifth deposit was opened in foreign currency.
“In order to increase the liquidity of the Chinese currency in Russia, it will take several years of very close work and a serious injection of capital,” says Anna Bodrova, an analyst at the Alpari Information and Analytical Center. The main thing, according to her, is that liquidity appears on the market, and banks begin to massively offer deposits in yuan.
Perhaps it really is only a matter of time, because, as the bankers say, the demand for Chinese currency instruments is constantly growing. The other day, Otkritie Bank, controlled by the Central Bank, announced that it would import yuan in cash, exchanging them for rubles at the Harbin Bank. This will allow developing settlements in yuan in the domestic Russian market, the credit institution said in a release. “We see a steady demand for cash yuan from Russian banks,” a representative of Otkritie told Banki.ru.
Indirect investment
Low liquidity and the almost complete absence of the ability to invest yuan for individuals make their purchase an extremely risky undertaking, experts say. Only a few Russian banks now offer to open a deposit in Chinese currency, and the rates on such deposits are inferior to those in dollars. For example, one of the banks now offers to open a deposit in yuan at 0.8-1.7% per annum (depending on the term and amount), but a minimum of 20 thousand yuan (over 180 thousand rubles) is required. Some credit organizations offer special savings accounts, but their returns are also inferior to dollar deposits. For comparison: now you can invest dollars at 3.5% per annum (banki.ru portal).
Even more limited is the offer for investors trading on Russian stock markets. Instruments denominated in yuan, except currency swap and a couple of yuan - the ruble, almost none. Several yuan futures contracts are also traded on the Moscow Exchange. Last year, bonds in yuan were issued by RusHydro, but the paper is designed for qualified investors and is used exclusively in repo transactions.
Three years ago, the Ministry of Finance prepared the placement of OFZs in Chinese currency. It was planned to issue securities worth 6 billion yuan (about $1 billion), they were to be traded on the Moscow Exchange. Investors from mainland China and Hong Kong were also supposed to have access to the bonds. However, it was not possible to coordinate the deployment with the Chinese authorities.
Therefore, those who decide to invest in securities denominated in Chinese currency have two options. The first is to open an account with a foreign broker, and the second is to invest in them indirectly, buying, for example, shares of Chinese companies or funds that invest in the Chinese economy. In particular, an ETF for the MSCI China index is traded on the Moscow Exchange. The fund has returned 4.3% since the beginning of the year. Some management companies also offer to invest in Chinese funds. To do this, you will have to invest in mutual funds, the calculations in which also take place in rubles.
“Chinese stock indices have somewhat lagged behind the growth rates of Russian stock indices, but both have shown significant growth in recent years,” says Alexander Osin, an analyst at Freedom Finance. Since June 2016, the MSCI China index has grown by 34%, the corresponding index Russian market- more than 42%. The main threats to the growth of the Chinese economy remain trade wars and corporate debt. According to BCS Premier analyst Sergey Suverov, these factors can lead to a loss of up to 1% country's GDP. "However, the current account surplus and possible foreign exchange interventions will not allow the Chinese currency to weaken significantly," he said.
With yuan under the pillow
Investments in yuan by themselves do not look very attractive even without taking into account deposit rates and the lack of tools for a private investor. Especially against the backdrop of the dollar, whose exchange rate has changed more noticeably against the ruble in recent years. Since June 2014, the yuan exchange rate has grown by almost 70%, to 9.3 rubles. The dollar has risen in price a little more - by about 87%.
At the same time, according to Bloomberg data, the yuan during this time fell in price against the dollar by 11.3%. To a large extent, this was facilitated by the course of the Chinese authorities to weaken their currency in order to support economic growth in the country. “The controlled weakening of the yuan made it possible to minimize external influence, but it is clear that the Chinese currency has moved in the wrong direction at all, in which it was expected,” says Anna Bodrova from Alpari. Indeed, at the beginning of 2016, the yuan exchange rate on the stock exchange reached 13 rubles, and many believed that it would continue to grow. Now, according to the analyst, the market is rather betting on the weakening of the Chinese currency. “If the trade war between the US and China continues, the yuan will be under pressure and may well move towards 8 rubles and even lower. If an agreement is reached between the parties, the yuan will have a chance to stabilize in the area of 10 rubles,” predicts Bodrova.
Promsvyazbank is waiting for a more massive fall in the exchange rate of the Chinese currency: up to 6.8-7 rubles. Therefore, according to the bank's chief analyst Mikhail Poddubsky, it is hardly worthwhile for private investors to invest in the yuan now, especially since due to low liquidity, the conversion costs may turn out to be very high.
On the other hand, some experts do not rule out that the long-term prospects for the yuan are very good. According to Finam analyst Vadim Sysoev, the yuan will be supported by the policy of the country's government, which is trying to reorient China's economy from export-oriented to import-oriented. “In addition, the government of the Celestial Empire is taking a number of measures aimed at simplifying the procedure for access of non-residents to financial markets mainland China, which will also cause additional demand for the Chinese currency,” he recalls.
How the yuan is changing
If you want to save your funds, earn some money and protect yourself from exchange rate losses, it is better to keep funds in a currency basket in equal proportions (dollar, euro, ruble). Then you will receive income from the deposit for each currency and protect yourself from losses on exchange rate differences. This is recalled by the head of the trading and information department of SMP Bank Roman Markov.
“The yuan is a really interesting currency for an economically strong country, and it has several features. One of them is that the yuan exchange rate is far from primarily dependent on market factors,” Markov explains. The yuan exchange rate does not add up depending on supply and demand at a certain moment, but is regulated by the local central bank. This means that, if necessary, the Chinese Central Bank will set the rate that it needs. For an investor who holds assets in this currency, these are risks that are difficult to assess.
Where to get Chinese money
- A few years ago, the yuan was rarely included even in the list of those exotic currencies that banks offered to the population. The pound sterling, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc were much more popular. Now deposits in yuan for clients of different incomes in Moscow are offered by several banks, mainly focused on work in the eastern part of Russia. Now the leaders of the consumer sector from the first lines are joining them bank ratings. The yield on such deposits is 2-3% per annum.
For quite a long time, since its inception, the yuan has been pegged to the dollar in one way or another. Until the 1970s, the exchange rate was 2.46 yuan to the dollar. By 1980, the rate had risen to 1.5 yuan per dollar. After that, the country's government began to underestimate the rate in order to stimulate exports. Due to this, an era of rapid development of the Chinese economy began. By 1994, the exchange rate had reached its lowest point in history - 8.62 yuan per dollar. The United States and Europe then criticized China for unscrupulous ways to make its products competitive on world markets.
In the mid-2000s, China ran out of opportunities for rapid growth through exports and a new labor force, and the economy refocused on domestic demand. Then the country abandoned the yuan's peg to the dollar, pegging it to a basket that included the currencies of the US, Eurozone, Japan, South Korea and, to a lesser extent, Russia, the UK, Thailand, Australia, Canada and Singapore. But during the 2008 crisis, the yuan was again pegged to the dollar at 6.83 yuan per dollar. By November 2014, the yuan appreciated to 6 yuan per dollar (however, the strengthening trend stopped from mid-2014 - note "YUK").
Yet China depends on the well-being of the US more than any other country. The fact is that China is the largest creditor of the United States and has already overtaken Japan and Belgium in terms of the amount of purchased American treasury bills. In recent years, China is still trying to get away from this dependence, replenishing its gold reserves and diluting US bonds.
“As for the prospects for the growth of the yuan against the ruble, look at the curve of the exchange rate of our currency relative to others,” advises Roman Markov. The ruble is declining against the dollar, and against the euro, and against the yuan at comparable rates. That is, it is not necessary to say that now, due to the exchange rate difference, it is more profitable to keep funds in yuan than in dollars.
“In addition, an attempt by a non-professional to make money on exchange rate differences is associated with high risks, the underestimation of which often leads to losses,” warns Roman Markov.
superpower money
The yuan is gaining more and more weight in the global economy, says Natalia Smirnova. In 2010, a whole block of countries pegged their currencies to the yuan - these are South Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, Singapore and Thailand. This happened in connection with the trade integration of China and other developing countries East Asia.
A year ago, the yuan became the second most popular currency in world trade. It overtook the euro: the share of the yuan in international settlements in 2013 amounted to 8.66%, and the euro - 6.64%.
“So far, the yuan is not among the reserve currencies, but other countries are increasing the share of the yuan in their foreign exchange reserves. For example, the Australian Reserve Bank and the Swiss National Bank announced this,” Smirnova says.
Almost like a dollar
- The volume of trading in the yuan/ruble pair on the Moscow Exchange in October 2014 reached its maximum recorded monthly value. It amounted to 12.5 billion yuan, or 83.5 billion rubles. According to the exchange, compared to September, the figure increased by 80%.
- The yuan exchange rate at the beginning of November updated its historical maximum on the Moscow Exchange and once reached almost 7.9 rubles. In June, the yuan could be bought for about 5.4 rubles. That is, since then, the Chinese currency has risen in price by about 30%, which is comparable to the rate of change in the dollar and euro.
Free conversion, but bad exchange rate
“In relations with the ruble, the yuan is becoming a freer currency,” Smirnova said. Previously, the ruble-yuan conversion took place only through the dollar, and since the end of 2010, trading in the ruble-yuan pair began on the MICEX. Now the Moscow Exchange believes that the volume of yuan / ruble transactions in 2015 can reach 1 billion yuan per day.
At the same time, not many banks give a good exchange rate of yuan for rubles. “Moreover, spreads (difference between best price buying and selling. - "Profile") on the market for exchanging one currency for another is quite wide when compared with the dollar or the euro,” says Roman Markov from SMP Bank.
For the layman, inconvenience will appear, for example, when he wants to exchange currency in another country. If he took dollars or euros with him, they can most likely be exchanged for national currency anywhere. Difficulties can arise with the yuan: not every bank will exchange it, and where this can be done, there will be a wide spread.
Taking into account all the risks, the income on a deposit in yuan should be significantly higher than on the dollar and euro. “So, the advantage of deposits in yuan in relation to dollars or euros can only be in rates,” Roman Markov sums up.
