MOSCOW, November 7 - RIA Novosti. By 2020, the Russian army will be able to defend Russia's national interests not only with nuclear weapons thanks to the development of new high-precision missiles, the leadership of the Ministry of Defense said on Tuesday, when the results of the work over the past five-year period were summed up at the collegium of the military department and plans for the coming years were outlined.

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu immediately outlined a roadmap: by 2020, Russia's non-nuclear forces will reach a level that will guarantee the protection of the country's interests.

According to the minister, a number of priority tasks are to be solved by 2020. "Strengthen the combat potential of strategic nuclear forces, continue to improve the system of comprehensive support and combat control. To bring strategic non-nuclear forces to a level that allows neutralizing military threats to Russia and guaranteed to protect the national interests of the country," the minister said.

Moreover, if today the share of modern weapons and equipment in the Russian Armed Forces has grown to 58.9%, then by 2020 it should be at least 70%.

"The level of equipping the troops with modern weapons has almost quadrupled compared to 2012. Today it is 58.9%," Shoigu said at a meeting of the military department.

New winged weapon

As First Deputy Defense Minister, Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov clarified, the development of high-precision weapons is proceeding rapidly: the number of carriers of high-precision cruise missiles in the troops has increased more than 30 times in five years.

"The forces of non-nuclear deterrence are developing at a high rate. For 5 years, a breakthrough has been made in equipping the Armed Forces with high-precision long-range weapons," Gerasimov said.

According to him, during this period, serial deliveries of Iskander-M tactical missile systems, submarines and surface ships with the Caliber missile system were established, as well as the modernization of long-range aircraft for the use of the new Kh-101 cruise missile began.

He emphasized that in the course of the transformations, the Russian army and navy received combat-ready regiments, brigades and divisions equipped with new weapons and military equipment, well-coordinated military command and control bodies, trained personnel ready to solve any combat mission. In addition, self-sufficient groupings of troops have been created in the Armed Forces in all strategic directions.

Old, good, nuclear

At the same time, the Ministry of Defense does not forget about nuclear weapons. Thus, the combat capabilities of the aviation strategic nuclear forces have increased by one and a half times in five years, the share of modern strategic missile carriers has reached 75.7%.

"The number of aircraft capable of using new cruise missiles has increased more than 11 times, the share of modern strategic missile carriers increased by 53% compared to 2012 and amounted to 75.7%," Gerasimov said.

He stressed that "on the whole, the combat capabilities of the aviation strategic nuclear forces have increased by more than 1.5 times."

In general, the Russian strategic nuclear forces are 74% equipped with modern weapons, capable of guaranteed infliction of unacceptable damage to any aggressor, including those possessing anti-missile defense means. At the same time, the strategic deterrent forces are guaranteed to prevent the unleashing of aggression against Russia and its allies.

Successes in Syria

The rearmament of the army naturally affected the successes in Syria. Over the past two years, about 54,000 militants have been killed there, Gerasimov continued.

"In total, over one thousand were freed settlements, killed more than 54 thousand militants of illegal armed formations (including more than 2.8 thousand immigrants from the Russian Federation and 1.4 thousand from the near abroad), "- said Gerasimov.

He noted that the Russian military in Syria faced a prepared enemy: the terrorist combat formations were well equipped with weapons and military equipment. They had at their disposal about 1.5 thousand tanks and armored vehicles, over 1.2 thousand guns and mortars captured from the government forces of Syria and Iraq.

At the same time, all the commanders of the military districts of the Russian army gained combat experience in Syria, all the commanders of the combined-arms armies and armies of the Air Force and Air Defense Forces, almost all the commanders of divisions and more than half of the commanders of the combined-arms brigades and regiments passed through the grouping of troops with their staffs.

"Almost all the flight personnel of the operational-tactical and army aviation gained experience in conducting combat operations. Many of them proved to be real air aces," said the Chief of the General Staff.

According to him, the crews of surface ships and submarines, carriers of high-precision weapons, also received combat skills. For the first time in Russian history, combat missions involving strikes against ground targets were solved by aircraft from the shipborne aircraft carrier group of the Northern Fleet. - said Gerasimov.

Currently, the main forces of IS * are defeated, there is very little left before their final defeat. The transition to a political settlement of the situation in Syria is underway, Gerasimov summed up.

Arrangement of troops

A lot is being done to equip the troops in Russia, for which military construction has been deployed with might and main, the First Deputy Minister of Defense of Russia Ruslan Tsalikov said during the collegium.

Thus, over the past five years, the development of seven missile regiments of the Strategic Missile Forces (Strategic Missile Forces) has been completed; four high-availability radar stations were put into operation; 17 airfields were reconstructed and 12 more are in the stage of high readiness.

According to him, serious efforts at the same time were focused on creating objects of forces and means of nuclear deterrence, an airfield network, a system for basing fleets, an Arctic grouping and ammunition storage arsenals.

"Now the geography of construction of facilities of the Ministry of Defense of Russia covers the entire territory of the country - from Kaliningrad to the Kuril Islands and from our southern military bases to the Arctic," concluded the First Deputy Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation.

"Unprecedented, I'm not afraid of this word, in terms of volume and terms of work have been deployed in the Arctic. To date, 425 facilities with a total area of ​​more than 700 thousand square meters have already been built here," Tsalikov clarified, noting that no country in the world has carried out such a large-scale construction in the Far North.

Education and Science

During the collegium Tsalikov said that the measures taken over the past five years have allowed the Russian military department to stabilize the military education system and ensure its development; defective graduates from military universities are a thing of the past.

"Already next year, lieutenants will come to the troops - graduates of the first full-fledged enrollment in 2013. The number of military educational institutions fully meets the needs of the Armed Forces," he stressed.

The Russian Defense Ministry, as Tsalikov said in his report, with the participation of the Russian Academy of Sciences, leading research centers and universities, has formed a system of innovative activities. For five years, about 1.5 thousand scientific and technical projects have been worked out, 450 of them have been selected for implementation, over 180 are underway, more than 300 samples have passed military approbation.

The military innovative technopolis "Era", which is being created on behalf of the President of Russia, is called upon to facilitate the introduction of breakthrough technologies. "The implementation of this project will also serve to increase the country's defense capability and economic development," the First Deputy Defense Minister emphasized.

According to him, more than 800 innovative designs and technologies were selected by the RF Ministry of Defense during congress and exhibition events, in particular during the days of innovations and the international military-technical forum "Army".

There is no end to work

Tsalikov also outlined in his report the main areas of activity of the Russian military department until 2020.

"There is still a lot of work to do, there is still a lot to be done. It is necessary to continue the further development of the sphere of life support of the army and navy; army, "he said, noting that it is also necessary to increase the efficiency of the creation, search and implementation of breakthrough technologies for the creation of new weapons and equipment; to improve all-round interaction and information support in solving problems of the country's defense.

One of the leading armies

According to Igor Korotchenko, director of the Center for Analysis of World Arms Trade (TSAMTO), bringing the level of equipment of the Russian army with modern weapons and equipment to 70% by 2021 will allow "our army to be considered one of the most advanced and modern in the world."

“Every segment of weapons is being updated today. It is obvious that, within the framework of the state armament program, the rearmament process will release 70% of new weapons by the designated date and will enable our army to be considered one of the most advanced and modern in the world according to formal criteria. In principle, we have reached one of the leading places in the world in terms of our military capabilities, which are necessary to protect the interests of our country and the interests of our partners, "Korotchenko said.

He also noted that the significant increase over the past five years of the Russian military presence in strategically important regions of the world is an important factor in maintaining the strategic balance and defending Russia's interests.

"The growth of the combat capabilities of the Armed Forces is ensured within the framework of long-range cruises of the Navy ships. A permanent group of submarines and ships has been created in the Mediterranean Sea, which solves the tasks of combating international terrorism, as well as the task of demonstrating the Russian flag in this important region," Korotchenko added.

In addition, Russian strategic bombers carry out combat patrol missions in key areas of the world. They fly over the Pacific, Atlantic and Arctic oceans. Russia is actively increasing its presence in the Arctic by building stationary military bases on the islands of the Arctic archipelago, the expert concluded.

* Terrorist organization banned in Russia

65 nanometers is the next target of the Zelenograd plant "Angstrem-T", which will cost 300-350 million euros. The enterprise has already submitted an application for a soft loan for the modernization of production technologies to Vnesheconombank (VEB), Vedomosti reported this week with reference to Leonid Reiman, chairman of the board of directors of the plant. Now "Angstrem-T" is preparing to launch a production line for microcircuits with a 90nm topology. Payments on the previous VEB loan, for which it was purchased, will begin in mid-2017.

Beijing collapses Wall Street

Key US indices marked the first days of the New Year with a record drop, billionaire George Soros has already warned that the world is expecting a repeat of the 2008 crisis.

The first Russian consumer processor Baikal-T1 at the price of $ 60 is launched into mass production

The company "Baikal Electronics" in early 2016 promises to launch into industrial production the Russian processor Baikal-T1 worth about $ 60. Devices will be in demand if this demand is created by the state, market participants say.

MTS and Ericsson will jointly develop and implement 5G in Russia

Mobile TeleSystems PJSC and Ericsson signed an agreement on cooperation in the development and implementation of 5G technology in Russia. In pilot projects, including during the 2018 World Cup, MTS intends to test the developments of the Swedish vendor. At the beginning of next year, the operator will begin a dialogue with the Ministry of Telecom and Mass Communications on the formation of technical requirements for the fifth generation of mobile communications.

Sergey Chemezov: Rostec is already one of the ten largest machine-building corporations in the world

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Rostec "fenced off" and encroaches on the laurels of Samsung and General Electric

The Rostec Supervisory Board approved the "Development Strategy until 2025". The main objectives are to increase the share of high-tech civilian products and catch up with General Electric and Samsung in terms of key financial indicators.

The year 2020 is a leap year, which adds to the excitement around its coming and what will happen. There are no planned events of Russian or world scale for the "additional" 366 day. The events listed will occur on specific dates or throughout the period.

In Russia

2020 is a jubilee year for Russia to celebrate the great day of victory in the Second World War (75th anniversary). But the period will be full of other significant events of the state level.

• May 9, celebration of the 75th anniversary of the great victory of the Soviet people in the Great Patriotic War of 1941-1945. and opening the capsule in Kursk with a message to the descendants;
• June-July, part of the matches of the 2020 FIFA World Cup will be held at the stadiums of St. Petersburg;
• On October 1-30, a population census will be carried out in Russia;
• December 31 will be the last day of the "dacha amnesty" for residents of the Russian Federation;
• completion of the construction of the federal Crimean highway "Tavrida";
• launch into serial production of the Russian-made medium-range passenger aircraft Irkutsk MI-21;
• completion of construction and commissioning of the Murmansk Commercial Sea Port;

In the world

European, Asian countries and the United States will continue their journey in space exploration. Also, 2020 will be full of sports events of global importance. In a number of countries, elections will take place, which may lead to a change in the vector of development.

• The Third World Youth Olympic Games are scheduled for January 10-16 in Lausanne;
• January 14 is designated the final day of the Windows 7 support program.
• On May 11-17, the 84th Open Ice Hockey World Championship in Switzerland (Zurich and Lausanne);
• 11-31 opening of the world exhibition Expo 2020 in the United Arab Emirates (Dubai);
• the launch of the James Webb Orbital Infrared Observatory is planned to replace the outdated Hubble.
• July 24 opening of 32 Olympic Games with Japan (Tokyo), which will last until August 31.
• On December 14, a total solar eclipse will occur, which earthlings living in Chile, Argentina, the southwestern part of the African continent and the southeastern Pacific Ocean will be able to observe.

No specific dates:

• the Hayabusa-2 probe will return with soil samples from the typical near-Earth asteroid Ryugu from the Apollo group, the trajectory of which passes through the orbits of the Earth and Mars;
• the G20 summit in Saudi Arabia;
• the onset of a technological singularity, according to the adherents of this theory, it will be 2020 that will be the year when the pace of development of technology and technology will become such that an ordinary man in the street will not be able to perceive and master them throughout his life;
• the emergence of 5G - a new generation of communications;
• The 16th European FIFA World Cup, which is surprising in that it will not be held as usual on the territory of one country or two neighboring states, but at 12 stadiums in 12 cities in 12 countries included in the UEFA list;
• the first private flight in the history of the planet will be sent to the natural satellite of the Earth - the Moon;
• The European Space Agency will partner with NASA to launch the Euclid Space Telescope, designed to study dark matter and dark energy, to confirm or disprove a number of hypothetical theories about these phenomena.

• conducting a census in Kazakhstan and Estonia;
• expiration of the term of the Kyoto Protocol, which regulates the reduction by developed countries and countries with developing economies of emissions of pollutants into the atmosphere in order to avoid the greenhouse effect;
• Launch of the Galileo satellite terrestrial navigation system, which allows tracking the location of land, water and air transport to solve geodetic and navigation problems;
• commissioning of the first power unit of the reactor at the Belarusian NPP, located 50 km from Vilnius, on the territory of the Grodno region of Belarus;
• presidential elections in Belarus;
• the launch into space of the first tourist group, consisting of several people not related to astronautics;
• completion of the construction of the World Trade Center, the towers of which are notorious from the events of September 11, 2001. It is a complex of 7 towers located in Manhattan in New York and will be completed in 2020;
• presidential elections in Kazakhstan.

Demography, sociology, Russian economy in 2020

According to Russian experts in the field of demography, the emergence of a sharp positive natural population growth in 2020 is unlikely. All attempts and programs aimed at these goals are effective, but natural population decline continues to prevail.

Analysis of financial indicators and forecasts foreshadows stagnation, in extreme negative cases, a fall in the country's economy.

The centralization of citizens in large cities will lead to an even greater decrease in population density, which will make it difficult to maintain the infrastructure of unattractive regions. A further influx of migrants will continue to resolve demographic and economic gaps. And, as a consequence, it will lead to an increase in interethnic tension.

The presence of a demographic problem in Russia will lead to a number of positive effects:

• a decrease in the number or complete disappearance of homeless children and orphanages;
• the birth of a small number of children in the family, and to their greater financial security;
• an increase in the number of teachers per child, which is likely to be a guarantee of an increase in the level of education in the country;
• the acceleration of the growth of the size of the living space for each tenant in the Russian Federation, which will make it possible to catch up in the average statistical value for the country with the indicators of Europe;
• improving the quality of construction and the level of competition in this environment, less demand will be a reason for improving the level of housing stock being commissioned;
• the ripening of the need to increase the productivity of workers, caused by the additional load on each individual worker;
• continuation of population growth through migration growth at the expense of the ethnic Russian-speaking population and their descendants from the CIS countries and the Caucasus, for which the economic attractiveness of Russia and the standard of living maintained in the Russian Federation will continue to be better than at home.

Life expectancy of Russians

There will be an increase in life expectancy due to a decrease in mortality from external causes and adherence to a healthy lifestyle. The population of the country in 2020 will, on average, become older and more balanced, which will entail an improvement in the rule of law and law-abiding citizens.

A healthy lifestyle will lead to an increase in the level and quality of life and the duration of the working age. This can lead to twofold consequences and a repeated increase in the retirement age in the future in 2035-2050. up to 70 years old.

A decrease in the number of young people can lead to stagnation and inevitable stagnation in the environment of innovation and high technology. The elderly will strive to stay in a comfortable environment where little changes.

The popularity of conservative ideas will continue to grow in 2020 and the influence of the Russian Orthodox Church, as well as the concept of nostalgic perception of the USSR and patriotic sentiments. Adherence to these ideas, according to economists and demographers, does not have the best effect, leading to the withdrawal of citizens into themselves, into faith, giving back to society and the Motherland, but not an increase in the birth rate. Conservatism slows down progressive reforms and some scientific and technical innovative ideas. Analysts predict a change in the nostalgic mood in the highest echelons of power in Russia not earlier than 2030, when modern young people, born much later than the collapse of the Soviet Union, will begin to rule the country.

ALL PHOTOS

What is important is that there will be an inflow of foreign investment in the energy sector, although the complex, confusing situation with the oil company Yukos and Mikhail Khodorkovsky may delay the flow of investments, especially if this process does not end with an attack.

Late last year, the National Intelligence Council (NIC) featured the first discussion papers of a new Trends Study. modern world- "Global Trends 2020". The previous study "Global Trends 2015", published in the late 90s of the last century, was quite actively discussed and quoted in the Russian press. What has changed in the assessments of American experts regarding the development of the situation in the world for the next 15-20 years?

The difference between the current forecast and the previous ones is the presence of the so-called "wild cards" - scenarios of unexpected and unfavorable development of events. As noted by the NIC experts, in previous studies they were not able to predict with sufficient confidence a number of events that had a serious impact on the development of the situation in the world. The introduction of such scenarios is designed to largely correct this omission, writes the online edition Agentura.ru.

Note that the general vector of the new study was the thesis that the global dominance of the United States will continue in the near future, although experts do not discount the growing influence of China, the decrease in the strategic importance of Europe in world security, the aging of its population, as well as the growth and rejuvenation population in the US and China. So how are the prospects, for example, of Russia assessed?

Russia, year 2020

According to NIC experts, Russia today is still at a turning point in history, on the eve of the next presidential elections. At the turn of 2020, a lot will depend on how the current struggle of political forces will end.

Russia today faces enormous objective governance problems:

The political infrastructure and political culture are still very weak.

Democratic transformation has not been completed. The political elite and bureaucracy at all levels are increasingly controlling political processes: this trend has actually intensified. Looking ahead, only a few political parties and individuals will be committed to Western-style democracy.

Market reforms have not been completed. The most difficult decisions, such as housing and utilities reforms, structural and banking reforms, have been left for Vladimir Putin's second presidential term. Russia is still heavily dependent on the extractive industries, hence on the price of oil.

Significant demographic problems - life expectancy is below the replaceable level, there is a steady decline in the population.

In 2020, Russia's relations with the outside world will remain ambiguous and contradictory. It will determine its interests in ways that do not always harmonize with the interests of the leading European countries, but a return to military and ideological confrontation with the West, even virtually, is no longer possible.

In international relations, Russia will begin to identify itself closely with Europe and may even bind itself to it with some form of formal treaty or agreement. Whether this will become EU membership will depend equally on the EU and on Russian policy.

As a member of the WTO, Russia is much deeper integrated into world economy although protectionist sentiments may persist in some sectors and regions. Many in Russia (perhaps even the majority) will oppose its inclusion in this global international organization, where Russia will not be the leading link, despite the possible economic benefits.

According to the authors of the study, the main problem of the Russian leadership will be the problem of reconciling the regional economy with the global political ambitions "to be a Great Power." By 2020, the key foreign policy partners will remain the United States and the EU, as well as China and India.

Russia will remain the main power in Eurasia and will retain its interest in cooperation within the CIS. Political and security ties with the CIS countries are likely to be asymmetric coalitions. Russia's ties with the Slavic states of the former USSR (Ukraine and Belarus) may be somewhat stronger. Even if Ukraine succeeds in its desire to join the European Union (and Russia will do everything to prevent this), social, infrastructural and economic ties will remain strong enough. Some form of federation is possible, even an alliance with Belarus.

The states of the Caucasus and Transcaucasia (Azerbaijan and Georgia) will strive to stay at a greater distance from Russia, but the consistency of Georgia as a state may still remain in question. Armenia is closest to becoming a close and stable neighbor while maintaining its own identity.

Central Asian states are likely to distance themselves politically from Russia, maintaining their identity and some economic ties to maintain stable relations with Russia, but also choosing other alliances (especially with the United States and other major regional players).

Demographic problems in Russia by 2020

According to NIC experts, Russians still do not show even signs of readiness to appropriately address demographic issues. Life expectancy is far from normal European standards, the birth rate is very low (the ratio of deaths to births is 2: 1, according to NIC experts, the population is likely to fall from 143 to 130 million people); the level of chronic, especially mental illness is very high, mainly among children, which does not allow us to speak about the formation of a healthy nation in the future.

There is a potential for explosive growth in the incidence of AIDS, hepatitis and tuberculosis. It is unlikely that the authorities will be able to cope with this, even less confidence that they will be able to prevent such a development of events.

The uneven distribution of the population will remain as a result of geography and historical features of development during the Soviet period. Only 20% of the population lives in Siberia and the regions to the east of it (and this percentage is rapidly decreasing).

Natural Resources and Environment for Russia 2020

Until 2020, significant Russian energy resources will be exploited at an ever-increasing pace. During this period, the EU is likely to become the main buyer of Russian energy, although the economic benefits of laying pipelines in Central Asian states could force Russia to turn east in search of energy exports. The important thing is that there will be an influx of foreign investment in the energy sector, although the complicated, confusing situation with the oil company Yukos and Mikhail Khodorkovsky may delay the flow of investments, especially if this process does not end with an attack on only one oligarch.

Awareness of problems is growing natural resources and the environment, as well as the desire to cope with the enormous burden of the problems of the Soviet legacy. But this is a very difficult task and it is unlikely that it will be completed by 2020. Russia itself is not very keen on Western standards.

Science and technology of Russia

This direction in Russia is traditionally strong, but very poorly funded in recent years. The current state of affairs in the economy does not give hopes for changes in the near future, but Vladimir Putin or his successor may make a political decision about large investments in science and technology.

World Economy and Globalization: Their Impact on Russia by 2020

Today Russia has made some progress in economic reforms, but has serious problems in their implementation on the ground. This provision may last until 2020. In addition, key reforms are going very hard. The implementation of these reforms, dragging on in time, may be postponed altogether.

Russia by 2020 will not make an economic breakthrough like China. Its economy will remain average by world standards. It will be a kind of structural hybrid of market elements (European standards) with significant government influence. Key industries will be corporate and likely to be ineffective.

Domestic markets (capital, labor, production) will remain undeveloped and segmented. Weak labor legislation, high crime rates, corruption and insecurity from fluctuations in the prices of essential goods will not allow maintaining the existing high rates of economic growth.

In general, production across the country will develop unevenly, which will cause a widening gap in the living standards of the regions. In turn, this will interfere with the leadership's willingness to raise internal living standards.

Despite the overall growth, Russia will not be able to cope with the problem of poverty, which is urgent for millions of Russians. At the same time, for the most part, these people, in principle, have already come to terms with the need, and will not pose a threat to social and political stability. There will be no events like October 1993.

Thus, in political and economic terms, Russia by 2020 will represent something similar to what is already being observed now. Economic collapse, collapse of basic economic infrastructure is unlikely. Corruption and (in certain regions and sectors) organized crime will remain significant factors in Russian reality.

By 2020, the activity of foreign capital will increase in Russia. The legislative framework will allow it to a greater extent, although it will not fully reach European standards.

Although access to the global Internet is not widespread among the population now, the pace of its implementation will be accelerated (in any form of its existence in the future). This will allow Russian sources of information to partly escape from the control of the Russian authorities, but at the same time, it can lead to an accelerated drain of Russian brains in the form of a labor market for young people, this market will be more mobile both physically and virtually.

Russia's political system and security by 2020

According to NIC experts, today Vladimir Putin is trying to continue his work to improve the basic laws and to carry out administrative reform. Reform development and good governance are threatened by the decentralization of power at both the regional and federal levels.

By 2020, important institutions of democracy (such as elections) will exist at both the federal and regional levels, but the Russian political system will remain authoritarian by European standards. Deeper democratization - the legal sphere, the development of parliamentarism, political parties, civil society - will be fragmented and weak. Respect for human rights and civil liberties will continue to be conditional. Here significant regional differences will arise: in some regions civil liberties will be relatively respected, in others they will be under serious threat.

In the absence of large-scale internal shocks (such as serious economic problems), the federation will persist. Paradoxically, according to NIC experts, political underdevelopment can be a factor of stability: there will be a lack of political groups interested in inciting unrest. Russia will retain its place in the UN Security Council.

The role of military power will be more prominent in official definitions national security than in Europe, but there is no doubt about the possibility of a return to Soviet levels of military spending.

The possibility of using strategic nuclear forces will remain the core element of military planning.

Chechnya is likely to remain a tangled knot of problems for the immediate future. Other regional conflicts on the territory of the CIS countries will depend on many factors, but Russia is not the holder of all trump cards and is in no hurry (mainly for tactical reasons) to play even with the cards that it has.

Russia will move closer to NATO. Even a request from her to join this organization is not ruled out.

Russian-American relations

The Russian system of views does not imply strong deviations from its current duality: the United States will be seen not only as a key foreign policy object and as an ally, but also as a successful rival. Russia wants to be seriously considered as a partner: most of all, it is afraid of being ignored or being on the sidelines. By avoiding manifestations of extreme nationalism, Russia will stick with the United States. But she will continue to assert her rights, often in, as NIC notes, in awkward and bizarre ways.

The ongoing redeployment of US troops - especially the establishment of permanent US and NATO bases in the CIS countries, the Caucasus and Central Asia - will run counter to existing Russian national security provisions. Together with the possible development of an American missile defense system, these events could create problems for the Russian leadership, and lead to periods of tension.

conclusions

What are the most important development trends in Russia shaping regional events until 2020?

Negative consequences of population decline and poor health care.

An increase in oil and gas production and their supply through the territory of the CIS countries, as well as disputes over their transportation.

Internal threats of Islamic extremism (real or perceived) and the response to them.

Problems in relations between Russia and the CIS countries, including the redeployment of US and NATO troops and the creation of forward bases by them.

As the so-called "wild cards" - scenarios of unexpected and unfavorable developments in Russia, NIC experts predict the following:

Return to political instability: Vladimir Putin's rule ends early due to his ill health or the emergence of a successful political rival (possibly from the oligarchs), this may be accompanied by a decade of political instability and adventurous rule.

Economic stagnation or decline: Low oil prices or the cessation of foreign investment leads to an intensification of the depression with political consequences.

Internal security crisis: Russia is experiencing a spike in insurgency by Chechen separatists in the North Caucasus, Islamist actions in Central Asia and civil unrest in the Russian Far East, coupled with Chinese immigration and China's economic penetration.

Serious deterioration of relations with the United States and NATO due to the deployment of missile defense elements and the military intervention of the United States and NATO in some regions of the world.

Thus, for Russia, by 2020, the borders of a regional power are clearly delineated, and even the presence of nuclear weapons, the storage sites of which by that time may be guarded by joint efforts of Russia and the United States, will not allow Russia to maintain its status as a "Great Power."

Membership in the UN Security Council will for the most part become nominal - key decisions on the use of military force by the United States and its allies, as before, will be made individually, without regard to the world community. Russia's foreign policy will increasingly be adjusted in accordance with that in the United States and, in part, in the EU.

How the world will change by the 2020s. Kurzweil believes that no area of ​​human activity will be left without the intervention of artificial intelligence. About what awaits us all in the foreseeable future - in short theses from the interview.

We will 3D print clothes

According to Kurzweil, by the 2020s, 3D printing technology will quickly and inexpensively create clothes of any style, color, design and size. The futurologist believes that 3D printing technology has not yet reached the required level, but it will develop exponentially and, in general, will become very cheaper.

Humanity will start producing very cheap food

Cheap food in large quantities will be available thanks to vertical farming technology - fruit trees and vegetable beds will grow on surfaces without the use of soil, on nutrient solutions. Muscle fibers of meat and fish will be grown in test tubes - by the way, a similar experiment was already carried out in London in 2013. Growing a hamburger "from a test tube" then cost several hundred thousand dollars. Kurzweil believes that such technologies will also become much cheaper over time and will be available to everyone.

We will build houses like in Lego

The scientist is confident that in the near future, the construction of houses and office buildings will be limited to a few days thanks to ready-made modules printed on 3D printers, which will be assembled on site, like a Lego set.

Human and artificial intelligence will merge

People and AI will become one and, thanks to this, humanity will grow wiser. “All gadgets are like an extension of the brain and, by the way, people already perceive them in this way. Remember, five years ago there was no such “reverent” attitude towards smartphones, but now phones are an extension of the hand, ”says Kurzweil. According to his forecasts, in the 2020s, phones will literally become a part of us - they will begin to be implanted into the body.

Robotic people will appear

Transhumanistic technologies will equip a person with additional intelligence that will help him fully cover a particular area of ​​knowledge. An ordinary, even a very smart person is not able to absorb all the available information, even in highly specialized topics. In addition, people will have "spare parts" - additional hands-prostheses, eyes-cameras, projecting an image directly onto the retina of the eye (as in the movie "She") and the like.

Artificial intelligence will be able to pass the Turing test, proving that it has intelligence

The computer will prove that it is an intelligent being in the human sense of the word. Kurzweil believes this will be achieved through computer simulations of the human brain. The scientist names the exact year when this will happen - 2029th.

Social and economic inequality will disappear

Kurzweil believes that the rise of artificial intelligence will benefit humanity not only technologically, but also socially. So, he cites data from the World Bank, according to which the poverty level in Asian countries has decreased by 90 percent over the past 20 years due to a sharp leap in technology development. Even in poor African countries, the Internet and gadgets are becoming more accessible every year. “We are all moving in the right direction,” says the scientist.

Future generations will get rid of stereotypes and prejudices

“I visit airports almost every day and see the following picture: children from the age of 2 are immersed in gadgets. This generation will change the world for the better, as the Internet will truly unite people of all races and nationalities, ”the scientist predicts.