In response to this material, Andrey Volokhov, managing partner of VAP Consulting, commented on the situation from the position hotel business and tourism: .
What about the money supply, and what to prepare for?
"The figures for the money supply from Central Bank come with some delay. Today we see on a special chart, which is called the "money multiplier". It shows the so-called "red zones" - the crisis years for Russia - these are 2008, 2014 and now - since February 2018 - the time when the Central Bank prints money faster. The economy does not create money, it spends it somewhere. Roughly speaking, our economy is running at a disadvantage. central bank prints money, and less money reaches real people, the real economy,” says Vladimir Levchenko.
According to him, this situation manifested itself for the first time in the fall of 2017, for a short time we got into the situation of 2008-2009. At the moment, the picture is the same with only one difference - the growth rates of the monetary base and the money supply this year, as in 2014, were declining, and now they are growing. it important point. What does it mean for a simple citizen of Russia?
This means that the economy is not working. This situation is close to a powerful crisis to the level and likeness of 2008 and 2014. However, practically none of the market analysts pays attention to the situation.
What can save the situation?
Historically, this is an increase in oil prices in rubles. Today's sanctions are hitting the Russian oil industry. In the past years of crisis, all oil experts said that Russia was waiting for a drop in production in the near future. It was scary. Even if oil prices fall to a critical level, with the help of the ruble exchange rate, the profitability of the business will be maintained. Production is growing - the company's indicators are growing.
In 2014, there was a sharp rise in oil exports. We immediately came across a number of tough scenarios: a drop in oil prices, a drop in exports, a large amount of external payments. Now we are faced with sanctions, external debts. There are not so many of them, but it is more difficult to serve them - because of the sanctions. This is one of the reasons for the decline in the efficiency of the economy.
“Russian citizens will be banned from using global financial benefits – this is a dubious argument,” says a financial expert, commenting on the current situation in the country. “Now it is clear that the Ministry of Finance will buy foreign currency endlessly - this only means one thing: officials are preparing for financial Armageddon. The worst thing that can happen is that the ruble will not fall. This means only one thing - a credit squeeze in the image and likeness of 2008. The Central Bank is now continuing to actively print rubles, and this is good. The Central Bank chooses the best scenario for itself.”
"Today money supply is growing faster than foreign exchange reserves are growing, - continues Vladimir Levchenko, - “The Central Bank prints money, the Ministry of Finance buys foreign currency with them, and part of the printed money disappears - there are many “holes” in the economy. There are still more extra rubles.
Over the past 2.5 years, the ruble has grown against the dollar by 35%. For example, the Turkish lira fell 2.5 times against the dollar during this time. The ruble can seriously devalue.
What is needed for import substitution in the country?
Russian entrepreneurs close to the authorities, after the imposition of sanctions, actively developed their activities in the field of agricultural production, processing - this is good for the economy - let's omit the issue of the quality of products. How do they do business and what do they need? Zero or negative interest rates. To cost bank loan was at or below inflation. For these purposes, it is necessary that the ruble continuously decline so that inflation remains at an average level of 6-7%. And to interest rate was about the same - says the financial analyst.
Such an outcome leads to a permanent devaluation of the currency, because no one needs it - it makes no sense to invest. Under such conditions, it is interesting to develop domestic production: the currency is cheap, money is invested, which is practically not returned later, and there is also an additional payment due to inflation. Goods that are produced in the country, thus, become cheaper. Based on the fact that today everything is still more expensive in our country than in the same Europe or the USA, this mechanism will clearly coincide with the strategy of the country's leadership.
“The world economy grows only with a weak dollar,” the expert concludes, “This is an exact fact over the past 60 years. Earlier, market experts warned that global economic growth is expected to pick up. None of this happens even without trade wars. If the dollar strengthens, the world economy will be weaker. The next point - oil today is extremely overvalued - and to gold, and to all other commodities. Over the past year, oil has been rising against the stagnation and decline of other raw materials. This is a classic pre-crisis scenario, after which oil falls. If, with the fall in oil prices, which has already begun, the ruble will not fall in our country, then it means that the “game of the rat king” has begun at our top levels. This is a catastrophe: 1,000 rubles per dollar is better than the collapse of the country.”
In what case can the "game of a beautiful king" begin? First, if there are problems with the transfer of power. Secondly, if after the transfer of power, which goes smoothly, problems will occur, because the process of governance itself will be rough.
“If the volume of business in the country increases, then everything is calm and stable at the top. If friction starts, including credit crunch, big business is actually forced to sell assets - this is already a problem, ”the expert concluded.
Fast news today
Recently, traffic jams in Moscow caused me to wait for a business meeting in a luxurious restaurant. Having admired the views, I casually began to observe the guests. Something was celebrating at one table, the girls took numerous selfies, such a common story.
“Strange” blond guys sat behind another and had a nice conversation, for Moscow it’s also a common story. There was also a couple of people who had not been in love for a long time, also trivial. But who surprised me was a man who was constantly brought new dishes, and he actively ate them. Then a “large Italian family” came, a truly loving couple, someone else ... The hall was filled with guests.
And then I thought that we all sit in the same restaurant, we are all people, but how do we behave differently, being shy or, on the contrary, behaving somewhat shockingly, choose a table differently, enjoy the ordered dish, and so on, and so on. Also the guests of my interviews, they are all very different people, with different life stories, but they have one thing in common - they want to see the development of Russia.
I noticed that the arguments of industrialists converge and are closer to real cases, the arguments of farmers are also almost the same and quite bold, but retailers are a completely different story and caste, economists look at everything through their prism, people of science offer balanced decisions based on history and world experience.
Today my guest is a financial analyst, a well-known radio host, a person who trades in stocks, bonds and futures, in other words, a trader. There were no people with this kind of activity in my project yet. I think that his answers will surprise you in the same way that the man from the restaurant surprised me (by the way, he turned out to be a taster). So, about the exchange rate of the Russian ruble, about economic niches and the “Made in Russia” brand, about why pensions have been stolen from us for a long time, and it’s pointless to talk to the government with Vladimir Levchenko.
"SP": - Vladimir, it is immediately clear that you love sports. Does it help you achieve your goals in life?
It's already my habit. Otherwise, I don't feel very comfortable. I started in childhood with gymnastics, for a long time I was engaged in martial arts, and much more. Now I just keep myself in good physical shape.
"SP": - Are martial arts important for boys? I ask as a mother.
For a boy, yes. He needs to be able to take blows in the face, you need to understand that you can live with absolutely any situation that arises in life. Here in the spring there was a story with mass suicides of children in the Chelyabinsk region. This is horror. This means that a person does not have enough resources, his mentality is so weak that he begins to hysteria, blaming everyone around for all his problems. In such cases, sport builds character. A simple example: you got injured in training, you get hurt, and you learn to understand whether it is forever or not forever and what to do about it.
Sport teaches to achieve. In psychology, there is an axiom that says - at the moment when a person has some kind of desire, he always has the strength to fulfill it. And if we do not achieve something, then we ourselves, primarily by our uncertainty, “merge” all these forces into another channel.
"SP": - Do you always achieve what you want?
Yes. But here the main problem is in determining the formulation of desire and confirming the inner feeling that this is exactly what I need. Most of our people don't know what they want.
"SP": - I know what I want! I want you to give an analysis of the world economy. Tell me, where is the world heading?
Photo: author
In recent years, very important events have taken place in the world economy. Two years ago, the world finally entered a falling commodity cycle. The era of economic development that we have seen since 1985, where emerging markets have been the main driver, is over. Now the world is moving into a new paradigm - technological. Under such a paradigm, countries with such an economic structure as ours will be outsiders. We will lose if we don't change economic course. So far, our government does not want to change anything.
"SP": - Are there forces in our country that can say what needs to be done?
Say what needs to be done, eat! But the forces capable of realizing this, I do not yet see.
Instead of being more deeply integrated into world economy and deepen the level of division of labor, the government is doing the opposite. Our leadership needs to understand that the deeper the level of division of labor, that is, the more highly paid specialists compared to low-paid ones, the higher the overall level of the economy. To do this, we need to develop science, education, and so on. And we are in the process of degrading these areas. It seems that a policy is being pursued to reduce the intellectual component, including in the economy.
There is a completely different trend going on in the world. Two key developments have taken place since 1970. First, the population growth rate began to fall. And the economy is demography, it is population. There are new people, there is growth, there are consumers, there is an economy. Secondly, there is a fall in the use of raw materials in every new dollar of GDP. This means that it is not some kind of oil, iron, metals, or square meters that acquire more and more value, but the person himself acquires value. But not his ability to dig up a garden bed or sweep a street, but to create something fundamentally new, for example, a breakthrough technology.
"SP": - Only in Russia it does not happen.
Correctly. We have a reverse trend. There are, of course, positive moments, but they are very few. For example, the head of Sberbank Gref trying to introduce new technologies. You need to understand that this is a very long-term process and the return on such things can be in many, many years, and this is normal.
"SP": - You take part in many economic forums. Are there any that you would support?
The problem is that the results of the forums are not systematized. But it is necessary to create working groups that would introduce reasonable ideas from the forums into the economy. The Stolypin Club, of which I am a member, is developing programs, but so far this has not come anywhere. The government does not listen to the forums. The same story with the Moscow Economic Forum.
Photo: author
"SP": - Putin recently heard three plans economic development: from Kudrin, from Siluanov and from Titov. The latter is one of the leaders of the Stolypin club. Does this plan have a chance?
Practice shows that the economy has been moved somewhere very far away. And it is clear how it will all end.
"SP": - Riots, revolutions?
No, this is not possible in our country. We simply do not have a young population due to the demographic failure of 1988-2010. There are far fewer young people who can become active, including economically active, than they were five to ten years ago. Remember how the classic sang - there are few real violent ones, so there are no leaders. Therefore, there is no one to leave.
Recently, intelligent people who wanted additional rights and freedoms took to the streets. They threw a bone in the form of a fairy tale - that if you want something, then go into politics yourself. They did it very smartly. Yes, you could go into politics, but no one would obviously succeed.
"SP": - What will happen to the Russian ruble? You have already stated that the exchange rate will be under 100 rubles per dollar ...
Will be anyway. Our ruble is highly overvalued. With the current model of the economy, the ruble is an objectively weak currency. Because Russia has a low level of labor productivity, the quality of the work of public and economic institutions is also low. There is also no management structure, no communications, no infrastructure. The only way out is to engage in competition, finding niches in the economy in which we will be competitive.
"SP": - To create a brand "Made in Russia" as Ruslan Grinberg says?
Undoubtedly. Engage in the production and creation of high-tech products. It is science-intensive products. We can do breakthrough things that few people in the world do. This is what needs to be done on the basis of the country. Let's invest in science and education. At the same time, there must be a national idea.
In the meantime, we do not even have long-term planning. It seems that the word "tomorrow" is simply not in the vocabulary of our leaders. The government is acting like there is no tomorrow. And you need to be able to plan for the long term, so that every person living in this country wants his children, grandchildren, great-grandchildren to live here.
"SP": - You are now turning to the government?
I appeal to each of us, it is pointless to address the government. If each of us starts to live like this, then the government will gradually either change, or they will also begin to get the hang of it.
"SP": - So what will happen to the ruble?
The ruble should be cheap, because it is very much overvalued. In autumn there will be another wave of falling oil prices. Therefore, it is quite possible that the exchange rate will be 100 rubles per dollar. And the dollar began another wave of its growth in the world.
By and large, all technologies are concentrated in the United States, and accordingly, this attracts capital to the states. Therefore, while - the dollar.
"SP": - But they say that you need to invest in gold. Is it so?
Gold loses its purchasing power for a long time because the more technology advances, the lower the purchasing power of gold. In the long term, in relation to technology, those who buy gold lose out. And in the short term, they can only speculate.
From the point of view of a banal consumer, buying a dollar for a ruble is investing in the development of a technologically advanced American economy, it is lending to companies that invest in technology. If you buy gold, then you harm everyone. Buying gold is taking money out of the economy. If we compare it with the human body, then going into cash means you just stopped eating, and going into gold means you are bleeding yourself extra.
"SP": - How do you prepare for the crisis?
I'm not particularly prepared. There will be a new reality in Russia. Now the main population of Russia behaves as if our life is worth "zero". Here is a square meter of housing - this is the value. It's terrible, but it's our national psychology. She needs to be changed.
Here, for example, one person is poor, and the second is better off. How does a less wealthy person think?
"SP": - Jealous?
It would be nice to be jealous, he hates him! For the reason that he does not understand and, most importantly, does not want to understand why this person lives better than he does. He does not understand what qualities of character and not only a more affluent person has. He refuses to admit that a rich person is successful in society objectively.
SP: Why are you talking about this?
To the fact that this is the reason that we have crises. It's like in the Soviet Union there was equalization, when the "excellent" and "three" students were paid the same. That is why the Soviet Union collapsed.
"SP": - Vladimir, but not all people are able to organize economic stability for themselves. The same Vladimir Zworykin, the inventor of television, would not have been so successful if his inventions had not been promoted by a talented manager of Jewish origin.
So you need to be able to find such people and use their entrepreneurial talent. But for this you need to look.
"SP": - Maybe society should not be so barbaric? And not to bet on square measures, but to bet on human talents?
Where does such a society come from? Society is you and me. I think if a person has earned, he is well done. In our country, the bulk of the population is sincerely convinced that it is impossible to earn honestly, that one can only steal. But how then does the whole world live?! Where did it come from that so many people steal the entire history of mankind?
"SP": - How to get out of the crisis?
I don't think there is a crisis now. Stock indices are at an all-time high! This is not a crisis, this is euphoria.
The American dollar, which was reprinted to get out of the crisis in 2007-2009, is not printed. On the contrary, other currencies are printed, such as euro, yen, yuan. The People's Bank of China has once again lowered the yuan exchange rate, and they purposefully drag the market along with them. Because many people in the world, just like ours, do not want to rebuild.
Today we see how investments made in technology justify themselves. First of all, this Information Technology in America. It is also a development in the world of biotechnology, healthcare. This is the direction in which we must move. Of course, for many investments, the market is not yet ripe, so some companies will go bankrupt. By the way, historically technologies develop precisely in those periods when prices for raw materials are low.
"SP": - And what should Russia do?
In Russia, you need to make a profit margin. A simple example. I was recently in the South. People complain to me. How is it, Vladimir, I grow vegetables, but they turn out to be more expensive than Turkish?! That is, it is cheaper to bring from Turkey than to produce here. This is what government and regulators should be doing. They must create a system, conditions, rules. And the investment will go into business!
But Medvedev recently said, - be patient, there is no money.
By the way, pensions have been stolen from us for a long time!
And the solution can be found simple and clear. It is necessary to make a separate personal account for each pension. And the employer must purposefully allocate money to this account. And we will manage them with you. I, as a professional, invest part of these funds in reliable bonds, part in stocks. If a person is not a professional, he can give them to the management of professionals. And there will be no shortage pension fund, and it will not be necessary to produce a huge number of officials. Elementary structure. Something similar has been working in Australia for a long time. Moreover, this money cannot be used until retirement. And you don't have to run from one company to another.
"SP": - What else needs to be done for our business in Russia to start breathing?
You need to create a structure. A good example is the multifunctional centers in Moscow, the so-called multifunctional centers. The human factor has been removed, and now any certificate can be obtained in five minutes. It is necessary to introduce the technologies of the financial economy into real life.
The next moment, the real estate market. Trading square meters should be the same as trading bonds and stocks. Elementary. I have money, you have square meters. I “deposited” money into the account, you entered the electronic system, pressed a button and put up your electronic meters for sale. And I submitted an application to buy these square meters. And that's it! There is no corruption, the deal is immediately visible. Also normal statistics will appear. I've been saying this for so many years that it's even funny to myself.
We have a problem in poor communication between government and business, between business itself, banking system and so on. Accordingly, it is necessary to remove these restrictions and then corruption will go away. And the business will breathe deeply. This is the first thing to do.
"SP": - I saw an article on your personal website about retromercury and its impact on the stock market. Do you track the cycles of the planets? Does it really work?
I try, but I'm not enough for everything. There are not so many specialists in financial astrology. The cycles of the planets certainly affect us. For example, solar activity, and our scientists have said this for the first time, affects economic growth. After a positive extreme solar activity next year, we always see a dip in the pace of global economic growth.
Mercury as the god of trade, as the god of economic activity at the moment when it goes back, that is, it becomes “retro”, affects some assets. They usually start moving in the opposite direction from the one in which they moved. Plus I overlay indicators technical analysis and macroeconomic data. So many assets "worked out" like clockwork. I wrote about this in my article.
By the way, the ruble and oil like to turn around at such moments. If we look, this is what has happened in recent years. It is possible that we will soon see a maximum for the ruble, as we have already seen for oil. Therefore, the cycle of falling or stagnation in commodity prices will continue.
"SP": - And what do you think our youth should do? You often mention such terms as psychological maturation and financial stability. How can they organize it?
First, you need to do what you love. Should be interesting. You need to find the positive moment in everyday activities. As they say, smile at the world, and then the world will smile at you. The sequence is just that. And if you look at the world with clenched teeth and growl, the world will respond in kind. Look for interest in any activity, do what interests you and always reach the end.
Here we are talking to you. And I could say - I'm not interested. But I don’t do this, I make contact, I go to a meeting, and with interest.
"SP": - And if they gave you "in the face"? I'm talking about risk management.
The basic rule is that you can always live with any situation. And, as the old Taoist proverb says, - if a stone falls from above, well, move away! Do you know what is the most dangerous animal in Africa? Hippopotamus. Because the wild hippo attacks without warning.
"SP": - How? The hippopotamus is calm as a boa constrictor…
And most people in Africa die from hippos. Even an elephant shows this for a very long time before attacking. Therefore, there are practically no such people who immediately hit you with a fist in the face. Purely theoretically, this, of course, can happen, but this is the exception rather than the rule. Before giving it to the eye, the person “shows” it. Therefore, it is important to be able to read feedback.
"SP": - What helped you in becoming?
You have to be in the right place at the right time. No one will ever teach this anywhere. It's impossible to explain.
A good example is the behavior of a child. Because, as a rule, a child copies mom and dad. And if we tell children one thing, but we ourselves behave differently, he has a terrible dissonance in his head. Exactly the same is happening in the world. Therefore, you need to be honest with yourself and start with yourself!
Education
In 1994 he graduated from the Rostov Institute National economy majoring in finance, credit, money circulation.
It has qualification certificates FFMS series 1.0 and 5.0.
Labor activity
in Russian stock market has been operating for over ten years. He started as the head of the stock department of the South Region bank. Later, in 1998, he worked at the IFC-Renaissance.
In 1999, he was a foreign exchange dealer at SBS-Agro Bank. Then, until 2001, he worked at Vneshtorgbank (VTB).
In 2001-2002 he worked as a customer service specialist at Troika Dialog Investment Company. In 2002-2003 he worked at IC Centerinvest Securities.
In 2003, he became an asset manager at IC Antanta Capital. In 2006, he moved to a similar position at AG Capital, where in 2008 he took the position of Managing Director.
In May 2009, he became an asset manager at Pilgrim Asset Management, where he was engaged in individual trust management and management of collective investments.
Since 2009, he has been an exchange expert at Business-FM, has created and maintains his personal website www.v-levchenko.ru, which has more than 15,000 registered users.
Video:
In February 2018, he became the brand ambassador of the commission-free cryptocurrency exchange Cobinhood in Russia.
Hobbies
Hobby - sports. At one time he was the champion of the south of Russia in bodybuilding. His favorite saying is a parable about a student and teacher from Taoism, the moral of which is: live your own life, not someone else's.
Family status
Married since 2005, wife - Tatyana.
