Sergei Yuryevich Glazyev (born January 1, 1961, Zaporozhye, Ukrainian SSR, USSR) - Russian economist, politician, adviser to the President of the Russian Federation on regional economic integration, member of the National Financial Council of the Bank of Russia. Doctor of Economics, Professor, Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences (since 2008), member of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine (since February 4, 2009).
Former Minister of Foreign Economic Relations of Russia, deputy of the State Duma of I, III, IV convocations. One of the leaders of the Rodina electoral bloc (2003-2004). Candidate for the President of the Russian Federation (2004). Former Deputy Secretary General of the EurAsEC.
Sergey Glazyev -"Report. On urgent measures to strengthen the economic security of Russia and bring the Russian economy onto a trajectory of advanced development " : http://glazev.ru/upload/iblock/797/79731df31c8d8e5ca59f491ec43d5191.pdf
15 points to protect the economy from sanctions from Sergei Glazyev: http://www.vestifinance.ru/articles/42212
GLAZIEV'S PLAN
1. Transfer of state assets and accounts in dollars and euros from NATO countries to neutral ones.
2. Return of all state-owned valuables (precious metals, works of art, etc.) to Russia.
3. Sale of bonds of NATO countries before the imposition of sanctions.
4. Termination of export of gold, precious and rare earth metals.
5. Currency and credit swap with China to finance critical imports and the transition to settlements in national currencies.
6. Creation of our own interbank information exchange system for payments and settlements in the Customs Union, CIS, with partner countries, by analogy with SWIFT.
7. Creation of a payment system for settlements by bank cards in "Evrazes", which would close, among other things, settlements on the Visa and MasterCard systems.
8. Limiting the foreign exchange position of banks, the introduction of preliminary declaration of large non-trading foreign exchange transactions. The introduction in the future of a tax on the export of capital and financial speculation.
9. Transition to settlements in trade in the Customs Union and with other countries in national currencies. Conclusion of new contracts for the export of hydrocarbons in rubles.
10. Currency and credit swaps with countries to finance trade.
11. Rapid reduction in reserves of dollar instruments and debt obligations to countries supporting the sanctions.
12. Replacement of loans of state corporations and state banks in dollars and euros in rubles on the same conditions, for this purpose a targeted issue with placement through VEB.
13. Explanatory work with the population on the advisability of transferring euro and dollar deposits into rubles. In the event of a freezing of assets of the Central Bank and state banks in the US and the EU, the freezing of bank liabilities in dollars and euros.
14. In response to the trade embargo - carrying out critical transactions through Belarusian and Kazakh enterprises.
15. Transfer to the national jurisdiction of registered offshore property rights to strategic enterprises, subsoil use objects and real estate.
Report by Sergei Glazyev: "This is about urgent measures to counter threats to the existence of Russia": https://www.business-gazeta.ru/article/140998
The policy of the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance naturally led to a serious economic recession: taxes are growing, social benefits are being cut, and foreign agents are hindering domestic import substitution. An economist, politician, adviser to the President of the Russian Federation on regional economic integration, Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences spoke about how realistic the alternative economic plan is and what are the real reasons for the decline. Sergey Glazyev in the program "Realnoe Vremya" Yuri Pronko.
Sergey Glazyev: Since we are talking about the myths that are built around my proposals: one clicker, sorry, wrote that I propose to build Venezuela with missiles. Rave. The man did not read anything at all: he was simply given an assignment, he posted my beautiful photo - not bad, well done - and then he wrote complete nonsense. It can be seen that he did not read the program at all, someone paid him for it. And in one of the American magazines, they praised exactly what was happening in our country - a paradise for speculators: they called it the right policy. And what we are offering, the scientific community, means rockets in Venezuela. Complete nonsense.
Yuri Pronko: Sergey Yuryevich, wait, this is a good mark. If they have the heroine Nabiullina, and you are an antihero, and this happens in the American edition, it means that they are actually praising you.
S.G .: Our growth opportunities are determined by the available resources. The production facilities are slightly more than half loaded. We can increase production by more than 40 percent based on our existing production capacity.
There is enough of everything - factories, personnel, raw materials
Yu.P .: That is, we don't even need to introduce anything new?
S.G .: Yes. Moreover, when they say that these are outdated capacities, it is not true. See what power costs. Modern metallurgical plants for metalworking are virtually bankrupt. I know of many such examples. The brick factories are modern with modern equipment. Mechanical engineering is operating at 40 percent capacity. That is, there are also capacities that have been put into operation over the past 5 years, new capacities.
The second question is labor. We are told that we have supposedly low unemployment. Note that 5 percent is not low unemployment. But we must also add hidden unemployment. And the fact that people work part-time, and long vacations - in aggregate, this is already about 12 percent. Due to the tragedy in Ukraine, there is a huge influx of qualified people with good specialties in demand.
I'm not even talking about the Customs Union, about the Eurasian Union, where we have a huge reservoir of labor resources in Central Asia: maybe not very qualified, but also in demand. That is, we have no labor restrictions both in the qualified market and in the unskilled one.
If you take raw materials. Recently I was in Tatarstan, where they achieved 100% oil refining. This means that our output of finished products with oil has increased by one and a half times due to integrated development. There is no waste at all in modern enterprises - this is what we have been striving for for a long time.
And if we use oil not as an energy export, but as a chemical raw material, the output increases many times over. We produce 10 times less marketable products per cubic meter of wood than in Finland. What, we can't do the same? Can. That is, we are talking about the possibility, due to the banal deepening of the processing of raw materials in the key areas of our raw materials complex, to increase production at times.
Enemies of import substitution
S.G .: And my favorite topic is import substitution. For example, drugs. Insulin: we could already live on our own Russian insulin. The corresponding development was carried out 15 years ago in our Academy of Sciences at the Institute of Bioorganic Chemistry.
Yu.P .: AND?
S.G .: What is needed for this? The state buys almost all insulin at the expense of the budget. And the state can invest money and build a plant, and in three years - completely cover the production of insulin in our country.
Yu.P .: Why aren't they building?
S.G .: It's just that it is profitable for someone to import insulin, moreover expensive insulin, to overpay for it. There is the so-called Big Pharma, which willingly shares super-profits and does not let any competitors in. Three foreign companies. And they spare no money in order to create a lobby here that protects their interests.
Yu.P .: Do they know how to stimulate?
S.G .: They know how: they know how to negotiate with our officials. At the Academy of Sciences, we were instructed by the president - this was probably in 2003 - to set up production. Now Vladimir Vladimirovich has again given an order to set up production. For 10 years now, there has been a site in Pushchino in the academic town, there are people, specialists, there is technology - everything is there.
Yu.P .: But there is no factory.
S.G .: There is a business plan. It was instructed to allocate money, but it is not allocated under various pretexts. The payback period for the project is two years. Here is import substitution, tenfold. Today we close the insulin market at the expense of our insulin only by 10 percent. Tenfold increase in output.
Let's go further by industry. Let's say the aviation industry. We can manufacture the entire line of aircraft. Yes, it will take money to create a fleet, to create a turnover of aircraft for leasing to work. But for some reason, our state-owned banks lend to the leasing of foreign aircraft.
And on the initiative, unfortunately, of our side, a privilege was introduced in the Customs Union for the purchase of foreign aircraft, which are exempt from VAT. Not only from import duties, from VAT. This is billions of dollars in subsidies - for the import of foreign aircraft. How come? Why is this happening? Unfortunately, Transaero went bankrupt, and quite certain structures were lobbying for the import of aircraft. We have the entire line-up: wide-body, short-haul, medium and small aircraft. Any choice. The Soviet Union left us with advanced aviation technology. Just zoom in.
Yu.P .: Or maybe we are no longer capable, Sergei Yuryevich?
S.G .: Why not? We, as government officials, fly on Russian planes. Il-96, Tu-204, I use them. To be honest, if I, as a citizen, had the opportunity to buy tickets for our planes on the market, I would buy only for our planes. Because they are the most reliable, this is objective. Even the old Tu-154 fleet is more reliable than Boeing in terms of failure statistics. Our aviation school is strong because reliability is a priority.
Yu.P .: And what about the Ministry of Industry and Trade?
S.G .: I see that we have complete dysfunction in the state regulation system. It would seem that our government should be concerned about economic growth. What is economic growth? This is an increase in demand, an increase in investment. Instead, it turns out - a reduction of both. Investments will be cut due to the fact that taxes are increasing; demand will be reduced because there is consolidation, that is, budget cuts. The opposite is true.
The central bank must be responsible for the stability of the exchange rate. And he is engaged in the free floating of the ruble. I'm not even talking about the fact that, according to the theory of money, it should create conditions for maximum investment, which I talked about. And it turns out that we are artificially falling into a trap: at the same time, high inflation, a decrease in production, a decrease in investment, an increase in costs, a reverse increase in inflation due to an increase in costs.
The crisis is man-made
Yu.P .: So this is a man-made crisis?
S.G .: Of course, man-made, it is associated with gross mistakes in macroeconomic policy. But the question is how to get out of it. We have just discussed this topic at the Free Economic Society.
Even if the state simply goes about its business: the government - by raising investment activity, increasing spending in accordance with its social obligations, and the Bank will ensure a stable exchange rate, we will already get plus 4-5 percent due to the fact that business finally feels itself in stable conditions work. There are no secrets here.
Yu.P .:That is, is it just the fulfillment of state functional duties?
S.G .: Yes, that's right. There was a good report by Andrey Klepach, where he showed in figures, in calculations that this can be done even in those parameters of macroeconomic policy that are formed by themselves. And if we add to this a mechanism of strategic indicative planning, supported by a flexible monetary policy, we link production growth plans with the emission of money, then we can get an increase of 8 percent. And in some areas - just explosive growth. But the main thing here is responsibility for managing money.
Our program is built on very specific instrumental sentences. We treat money as an instrument of economic growth. Modern money is not gold or even dollars. Modern money is instruments for ensuring economic turnover and investment growth, which are issued against debts, against obligations.
The US dollar is 90 percent issued against US Treasury bonds. And all the money we use here, in Russia, is money passed through the US budget deficit, which reaches 8-10 percent. And when they need economic growth, they throw away all their thoughts on the fact that the budget deficit should be no more than 2-3 percent.
When Americans emerged from the crisis in the 1970s (and are now doing), their deficit went off scale to 10 percent of GDP. And the budget deficit was always financed at the expense of money emission. The European Central Bank is doing the same. There we hear a lot of lamentations about Greece, Cyprus, and others. But the European Central Bank bought all the Greek bonds.
From the moment when the bonds of European states appear on the market - this or that government throws them out - the European Central Bank prints money for them. And before that, the central banks of European states printed money against the debts of enterprises. When in Germany everyone was given 20 marks after the war, then economic growth was financed by the fact that the German Central Bank issued credit money for commercial banks against the security of bills of exchange of enterprises that took out loans from them. Money is a tool.
Yu.P .: And our Russian Central Bank follows its policy.
S.G .: Just to make our situation clear.
Scientist and politician S. Glazyev diagnoses the liberal collapse succinctly and clearly: “… today there is chaos in the economy. The Central Bank predicts a decline in inflation, but it will double ... the profitability of all industries, with the exception of mining and chemical and metallurgical, has fallen several times and continues to fall ... Many sectors of the economy are already operating at a loss. Enterprises are so heavily credited that their owners have to give all their profits to repay loans ... "
According to Glazyev, “... there is a lot of money in the country. They circulate on the stock exchange, bringing gigantic profits to speculators ... Each quarter, one hundred trillion rubles turnover on the currency exchange, which is two annual GDP of Russia. "
The foreign exchange market is "very well" manipulated from abroad. The MICEX was removed from the control of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. Half of the MICEX shares belong to large Russian and foreign companies. Who is the owner of the other half - “nobody knows” (!!! - EiM).
Academician Glazyev is right and accurate. But due to his systemic position in power, he does not call (is he afraid?) Things by their proper names. The very phrase "bringing gigantic profits to speculators" is absurd from the point of view of economic science.
What kind of "speculators" are they? Because of their turnover and impunity, they are the very thieves', illegitimate POWER OVER THE COUNTRY, which uses its power to the utmost. This group of speculators is the CONSPIRACY that seized power over the Russian Federation in 1991.
As an economist, I explain why:
There is a law of the organic structure of capital, in which, in a free market, money flows from areas of low profitability to areas of high profitability. Therefore, the profitability of all industries eventually levels out.
If something is sold too expensive, then everyone starts to produce it, the quantity of this product grows, competition grows and it becomes cheaper.
On the contrary, if something is sold too cheaply, then the number of producers decreases, they transfer their capital to more profitable areas.
As a result, cheap goods become scarce, demand for them is not satisfied, competition weakens - and the goods eventually become more expensive. As a result, onion growing in the free market has the same rate of return as banking operations and the like.
If this does not happen, if in some areas (like on the MICEX) there is a consistently increased profitability in relation to other areas of capital investment - LOOK FOR A CONSPIRACY!
Without a conspiracy that has a hand in the ruling power, not a single sphere can have a steadily increased profitability.
If speculators speculate in potatoes more expensive than onions, then more and more speculators appear in potatoes and less and less onions. As a result, the price of potatoes decreases, while the price of onions rises and everything levels out.
As for the MICEX, in its case it is absurd to talk about some kind of "speculators", allegedly acting at their own risk and not connected with the authorities. The MICEX with a quarterly turnover of more than two annual GDP of the country is, first of all, an ILLEGITIVE AND UNCONSTITUTIONAL AUTHORITY, pushing back the legal power with its legislative, executive and judicial branches.
Money is power and vice versa. Having two GDPs of the country per quarter, you can remove and appoint ministers, governors, mayors, choose an obedient deputy corps, and generally influence the life of the country in every possible way.
You can, in short, buy everyone and sell everyone - which is what the MICEX is doing, managing the economy of the Russian Federation, raising or lowering wages on a national scale, without any constitutional authority.
Glazyev essentially designated the MICEX as an unconstitutional body of power, as a group that usurped power in the Russian Federation, but due to its consistency, he resorted to the completely inappropriate term “speculators”.
The essence of Glazyev's plan for the transition from a thieves' society of an unconstitutional conspiracy to a civil society is as follows:
“It's just that the Central Bank of the Russian Federation should print as much money as possible and transfer it to the real sector of the economy at a low interest rate. All developed countries have done this in recent years ”. And this did not lead to the promotion of inflation, because the additional banknotes went not to the speculative market, but to loans for specific industrial and innovative projects. For interest-free loans, as a rule.
Glazyev literally says the following:
"An enterprise comes to the state and says:" Give me money, and I will introduce you a breakthrough technology. " The state sadly replies: "There is no money for this in the budget." “You don’t need it from the budget”! - sums up Glazyev. Let the Central Bank print how much the enterprise needs and give it! This is what all the top twenty countries do. "
Russia took the opposite path - high interest rates and a 30% contraction in the money supply between 2014 and 2017. At the same time, according to purchasing power parity, the ruble exchange rate is 3.5 times undervalued, gold and foreign exchange reserves exceed the money supply twice, although it should be the other way around.
“The Russian monetary authorities do not care about the exchange rate. Everyone who wants to rule the ruble: speculators (91% - foreign), the stock exchange, panicky public opinion - but not the Central Bank ”- complains Glazyev.
According to Glazyev, it is necessary: “... to oblige the Central Bank to issue as many rubles as necessary for innovative and simple production projects, and to give them for long periods at 1% or at 0%, if we are talking about a state order. And commercial banks sell money at a key rate, which in this case will no longer matter for the future of the country. With this approach, the economy and supply will begin to grow. This means that turning on the printing press will lead not to growth, but to a decrease in inflation. This was proved by the same USA in the period from 2007 to 2014 ”.
Glazyev is absolutely right. And yet he is completely wrong. Paradox? No. This is a natural consequence of the authorities' attempts (through the mouth of their best representative, S. Glazyev) to CHANGE EVERYTHING, NOT CHANGING ANYTHING.
This position of the intellectual, the most educated person of our time, S. Glazyev, is more contradictory than the stupid and bestial behavior of the dark market liberopaths who have revived on the wave of the crisis.
Russian presidential advisor Sergei Glazyev presented at a closed meeting of the interdepartmental commission of the Russian Security Council the very report that gained wide popularity thanks to a front-page article in the Kommersant newspaper, where it was called the most complete presentation of the program of the supporters of the "modernization breakthrough."
At the same time, both critics and apologists of these ideas had only a tendentious set of passages at their disposal, but not the text itself.
Proposals for changing the economic course were prepared under the leadership of the adviser to the President of the Russian Federation Sergei Glazyev, but not by them alone, but by a whole group of like-minded people, which amounted to about fifteen people. Most of them belong to domestic scientific circles, especially since the presidential advisor himself is a member of the Russian Academy of Sciences with the rank of academician.
Meanwhile, last week the document gained scandalous notoriety thanks to the free presentation of its ideas in the Kommersant newspaper - many economists and publicists of a liberal persuasion criticized the report, in particular. At the same time, no one had the opportunity to read "Pasternak himself", since the report was not published anywhere.
As the well-known economist, head of the Institute of Dynamic Conservatism told Andrey Kobyakov, quotes from the report in Kommersant were "absolutely torn out of context" and it was in this distorted form that caused a real stir on the Internet and in the liberal press. Meanwhile, from his point of view, the document offers practical measures to allow Russia to avoid the collapse of economic and state institutions in the face of confrontation with the West.
The document suggests:
Introduce a new, hybrid form of ownership - people's enterprises (with expanded powers of labor collectives);
- introduction of currency control;
- restrictions on the export of capital;
- price regulation;
- massive lending to production;
- reduction of the rate of the Central Bank and emission pumping of the industry;
- a multiple increase in spending on research and development, education and research;
- dismantling of the Chubais reform of the energy sector (its recentralization);
- creation of mechanisms for the withdrawal of Russian companies from the Western credit press;
- to recreate in a mild form the form of state planning;
- to create an economic management body under the leadership of the president, standing above the liberal Council of Ministers;
We invite our readers to form their own opinion about the report of Sergei Glazyev. The report is voluminous and for ease of reading was divided into chapters.
"On urgent measures to repel threats to the existence of Russia"
"US TRYING TO KEEP LEADERSHIP BY DEPLOYING WORLD WAR"
The US aggression against Russia and its seizure of control over Ukraine is an integral part of the global hybrid (chaotic) war waged by Washington with the aim of retaining world leadership in the growing competition with China. Russia was chosen as the direction of the main attack due to a combination of objective and subjective circumstances.
Objectively, the escalation of international military-political tension is due to a change in technological structures and age-old cycles of accumulation, during which a deep restructuring of the economy takes place on the basis of fundamentally new technologies and new mechanisms of capital reproduction. In such periods, as the five-hundred-year experience of the development of capitalism shows, there is a sharp destabilization of the system of international relations, the destruction of the old and the formation of a new world order, which is accompanied by world wars between old and new leaders for dominance in the world market.
Examples of such periods in the past are: the war of the Netherlands for independence from Spain, as a result of which the center of development of capitalism moved from Italy (Genoa) to Holland; The Napoleonic Wars, as a result of which the dominance passed to Great Britain; The First and Second World Wars, as a result of which dominance in the capitalist world passed to the United States and the Cold War between the United States and the USSR, as a result of which the United States seized global leadership due to superiority in the development of a new information and communication technological order based on microelectronics and the establishment of a monopoly on emission of world money.
At the present time, in the wake of the growth of a new technological order, China is pulling ahead, and the accumulation of capital in Japan creates opportunities for moving the center of world capital reproduction to Southeast Asia. Faced with an overaccumulation of capital in financial pyramids and outdated industries, as well as the loss of markets for its products and a drop in the share of the dollar in international transactions, the United States is trying to maintain its leadership by deploying a world war in order to weaken both competitors and partners. In an effort to establish control over Russia, Central Asia and the Middle East, the United States is seeking a strategic advantage in managing the supply of hydrocarbons and other critical natural resources. US control over Europe, Japan, and Korea ensures US dominance in the creation of new knowledge and the development of advanced technologies.
Subjectively, anti-Russian aggression is explained by the irritation of American geopoliticians by the independent foreign policy of the President of Russia towards broad Eurasian integration - from the creation of the EAEU and the SCO to initiatives to form a single economic space from Lisbon to Vladivostok. The United States fears the formation of independent global outlines of expanded reproduction, primarily by the BRICS countries. Russia's historical role in organizing global integration projects predetermines the surge of American Russophobia. At the same time, the demonization of the President of Russia takes place, whom Washington considers the main culprit in the loss of control over Russia and Central Asia, and considers his independent foreign policy as a key threat to its global domination.
The world war unleashed by Washington differs from the previous one by the absence of front-line clashes of warring armies. It is carried out on the basis of the use of modern information and cognitive technologies based on "soft power" and the limited use of military force in the format of punitive operations to punish the enemy who is deprived of the ability to resist. It counts on destabilizing the internal state of the victim country through the defeat of its public consciousness by subversive ideas, the deterioration of the socio-economic situation, the cultivation of various opposition forces, the bribery of the productive elite in order to weaken the institutions of state power and overthrow the legitimate leadership with the subsequent transfer of power to the puppet government.
Such wars are called hybrid: the leadership of the victim country until the last moment does not feel the threat from the enemy, its political will is shackled by endless negotiations and consultations, immunity is suppressed by demagogic propaganda, while the enemy is actively working to destroy the structures of its internal and external security. At the decisive moment, they are undermined with military suppression of the emerging centers of resistance. This is how the United States achieved success in the Cold War against the USSR, and is currently creating funnels of expanding chaos in strategically important regions of the Middle East and trying to regain control over the post-Soviet space.
"ORGANIZATION OF THE MILITARY CONFLICT BETWEEN RUSSIA AND EUROPE IS MOST DESIRABLE FOR THE USA"
Having organized a coup d'état and established full control over the structures of Ukrainian state power, Washington is betting on turning this part of the Russian world into a springboard for military, informational, humanitarian and political intervention in Russia with the aim of transferring a chaotic war to its territory, organizing a revolution and subsequent dismemberment. The calculation is made that the Russian public consciousness lacks immunity to the penetration of agents of influence from Ukraine, which is an integral part of the Russian spiritual and cultural root system. And also that the Russian armed forces will not dare to use weapons of mass destruction against the brotherly people.
By unleashing the Ukrainian-Russian war, the United States is drawing NATO countries into it against Russia, at the same time seeking to weaken the EU with anti-Russian economic sanctions and consolidating its control over Brussels. The organization of a military conflict between Russia and the European NATO countries on the territory of Ukraine is the most desirable scenario for the United States, for which wars in Europe have always been “good”. The unleashing of such a war under the slogan of defense against "Russian aggression" is the main goal of the Russophobic regime established by the Americans in Kiev. As long as it exists, provoking a war against Russia will continue, including through terror against the Russian population of the South-East of Ukraine.
Even if it is possible to stop the American aggression in Ukraine and stop the Ukrainian crisis, there is no doubt that a prolonged and significant deterioration in trade and economic relations between Russia and NATO member states, as well as other countries dependent on the United States (Japan, South Korea, Canada, Australia), is inevitable. ... Given the high external dependence of the Russian economy, this poses serious threats to national security. The most acute of them relate to the risks of freezing foreign exchange assets, disconnecting Russian banks from international payment and information systems, bans on the supply of high-tech products, and deteriorating conditions for Russian exports.
At present, the volume of foreign currency assets of the Russian Federation placed in the jurisdiction of NATO countries is more than 1.2 trillion. dollars, including short-term - about 0.8 trillion. dollars. Their freezing can be partially offset by retaliatory measures against the assets of NATO countries in Russia, which amount to 1.1 trillion. dollars, including long-term - more than 0.4 trillion. This threat would be neutralized if the monetary authorities had timely organized the withdrawal of Russian short-term assets from the US and the EU, which would change the balance in their direction. However, despite the threat of sanctions, the placement of Russian assets in American and European securities continues.
Before it is too late, it is necessary to urgently sell foreign currency assets placed in the liabilities of the United States, Great Britain, France, Germany and other countries participating in the sanctions against Russia. They should be replaced by investments in gold and other precious metals, in the creation of stocks of highly liquid commodity assets, including critical imports, in securities of the EAEU, SCO, BRICS member states, as well as in the capital of international organizations with Russian participation (including the Eurasian Development Bank , CIS Interstate Bank, IIB, BRICS Development Bank, etc.), expanding the infrastructure to support Russian exports. Among the elements of the latter, of great importance is the creation of international exchange platforms for trading Russian commodities in the Russian jurisdiction and for rubles, as well as the creation of international networks for the sale and service of Russian goods with high added value.
With regard to the emerging trend of freezing the private assets of Russian legal entities and individuals, to whom the monetary authorities of Western countries are beginning to create obstacles in returning money to Russia, it is necessary to consider measures to introduce a full or partial moratorium on servicing loans and investments from these countries.
The Central Bank has delayed the creation of a national payment system for servicing bank cards, as well as an international system for the exchange of interbank information, which could secure the Russian financial system from sanctions from the VISA, Mastercard, SWIFT payment and settlement systems located in Western jurisdiction, as has already been mentioned three years ago. Now the creation of such international-level systems must be put on the agenda of the next meeting of the BRICS countries in Ufa in order to ensure the operation of Russian payment instruments not only within the country, but also abroad ( Annex 1).
It is necessary to fulfill the instructions already repeatedly given by the President of Russia on the deoffshorization of the Russian economy, which creates a supercritical dependence of its reproduction contours on Anglo-Saxon legal and financial institutions and entails systematic losses of the Russian financial system up to 60 billion dollars a year only on the difference in the profitability of borrowed and invested capital. The corresponding proposals were repeatedly sent to the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Russia ( Appendix 2). Recently adopted legislative initiatives in this direction are limited to issues of taxation of income transferred abroad, which not only does not eliminate the most important motives for the export of capital, but also stimulates the transfer of taxpayers to foreign jurisdiction.
It is important to achieve the fulfillment of the repeated instructions of the President of Russia on the creation of a national infrastructure of the financial market, including the transition to the use of domestic rating agencies, audit, legal and consulting companies. A hitch in their implementation entails significant losses to the national financial system due to the systematic understatement of credit ratings of Russian borrowers and unfair behavior of Western partners.
"THE BANK OF RUSSIA CONTINUES TO SERVE THE INTERESTS OF FOREIGN CAPITAL"
To pursue an independent policy, you need to manage your economic development. By controlling the reproduction of the national economy, the enemy can manipulate the behavior of the business community, critically influencing the conditions of society's life. The war with him under such circumstances cannot be won, which makes it impossible to conduct an independent foreign policy. It follows from this that the independent foreign policy course of the Russian leadership must be supported by the restoration of national sovereignty and control over the reproduction and development of its own economy.
The most important condition for neutralizing Western sanctions is the transition from external to internal sources of credit. The proposals for solving this problem, repeatedly expressed by Russian scientists and specialists, are categorically rejected by the leadership of the Bank of Russia, which continues in its policy to focus on serving the interests of foreign capital.
Until now, despite the sad experience of the outflow of foreign speculative capital in 1998, 2008 and 2014, the Bank of Russia continues its policy of complete openness of the Russian financial market, not taking appropriate measures, both to counteract the export of capital and to create internal sources of credit. As a result of this policy, the money supply in the Russian economy is formed mainly for foreign liabilities and remains clearly insufficient to finance even simple reproduction of fixed capital. It resulted in the deep external dependence of the Russian economy on the external market, its raw materials specialization, degradation of the investment sector and decline of the manufacturing industry, subordination of the financial system to the interests of foreign capital, in favor of which an annual transfer of $ 120-150 billion is carried out ( Appendix 3). The Bank of Russia's policy of raising interest rates and limiting the volume of credit against the background of freezing external sources of credit entails a contraction in the money supply, a drop in production and investment, as well as a chain of corporate bankruptcies with negative social consequences.
The rise of the economy, which, according to the objective state of production factors last year, should have amounted to 3-5% of GDP growth, was stopped by a consistent increase in the key rate of the Central Bank above the level of the average profitability of the real sector of the economy. The increase was made on the basis of the IMF's standard recommendation to reduce inflation by raising the interest rate.
In practice, such a policy leads to the economy falling into a stagflationary trap. Over the past two decades, numerous studies have been carried out indicating that an increase in interest rates and a contraction in the money supply, as a rule, do not lead to a decrease in inflation, but always and everywhere entail a fall in production and investment, as well as a banking crisis and an avalanche of bankruptcies. In addition, in our conditions of demonetization and monopolization of the economy, they are accompanied not by a decrease, but by an increase in inflation.
The second gross mistake of the Central Bank was the transition to free floating of the ruble exchange rate. There is no scientific evidence for its need for inflation targeting. On the contrary, in the conditions of excessive openness of the Russian economy, dependence of its exports on oil prices and a high share of imports in the consumer market, free exchange rate formation is incompatible with ensuring macroeconomic stability. Fluctuations in prices in the world market, an attack by financial speculators or any other change in external economic conditions can upset plans to achieve the target inflation rate.
The combination of these two mistakes led to the fact that, announcing the transition to inflation targeting, the Central Bank achieved exactly the opposite results - inflation doubled, and confidence in the national currency and the regulator itself was undermined for a long time. With a 6-8% potential for annual GDP and investment growth, the Russian economy is artificially driven into a stagflationary trap. The monetary authorities are orienting it towards a 5% drop with 15% inflation. At the same time, an even worse scenario is not ruled out, fraught with default by large Russian borrowers in the event of continued capital outflow and a fall in oil prices. Based on the results of the first quarter of 2015, one can state a sharp deterioration in the conditions for reproduction of the real sector of the Russian economy. The volume of loans issued to him decreased by almost half a trillion rubles, the share of overdue debt increased by 60%. Since January of this year. it became, on the whole, unprofitable. The total profit of enterprises has been halved compared to the pre-crisis 2007.
Against this background, the policy of the Bank of Russia on further contraction of the money supply aggravates these processes and entails a breakdown of the entire system of reproduction and money circulation. A decrease in the level of monetization last year by 10%, this year - by 15-20% will inevitably entail a corresponding drop in investment and production, further deterioration of the financial situation and massive bankruptcies of enterprises in the real sector.
The deterioration of the conditions for the reproduction of the real sector is accompanied by the maintenance of artificial super-profitability of currency speculations. If last year currency speculation on the fall of the ruble gave 30-50% per annum, pulling in ¾ of the loans allocated by the Bank of Russia for refinancing the banking system, now they give 40% on the appreciation of the ruble. In performing foreign exchange REPO operations, the Bank of Russia actually subsidizes foreign exchange speculators who convert foreign currency loans received at 2%, purchase OFZs with a yield of 10%, and then re-buy foreign currency at a depreciated rate. By its policy, the Bank of Russia stimulates currency speculation to the detriment of the real sector. After the ruble appreciated by 1/3, it almost completely lost the gain in price competitiveness obtained as a result of last year's devaluation, which creates conditions for a new devaluation wave.
"DEBT OF RUSSIAN BORROWERS TO WESTERN CREDITORS - 560 BILLION DOLLARS"
As this example shows, external control loops economic and social life, being unconscious, which means not perceived or dismantled, are no less dangerous than other types of "containment" of Russia. In the unconsciousness and gradualness (routine), the peculiarities of the cognitive weapon are manifested, through which Russia is driven into a rut imposed from the outside, institutional and financial traps, create prohibitive threats to national security, the risk of defeat in a hybrid (economic, informational and other, up to hot) war. The introduction of false goals and unsuitable methods into the minds of managers and the methods of work of regulators makes it easy to manipulate them, using them to self-destruct their own economy and subordinate the policy to foreign interests.
These errors (in fact, the contours of external control) are supplemented by another IMF dogma about the inadmissibility of currency restrictions, the adherence to which turns into a gigantic capital flight, encourages corruption, entails the offshorization of the economy and its extreme vulnerability to external threats. The failure of this dogma, focused on ensuring the interests of foreign speculative and offshore capital, corrupt officials and organized crime, has been proven both by scientific research and practical experience. Selective currency regulation and restrictions on cross-border capital movements are practiced by the vast majority of countries, including the United States. At the systemic level, it is being conducted by our BRICS partners, who have been very successful in attracting foreign direct investment. The necessity of currency control to repel speculative attacks and ensure macroeconomic stability has been proven.
If you do not take urgent measures to radically change monetary policy in the direction of creating internal sources of long-term credit and ensuring the stability of the Russian monetary and financial system ( Appendix 4), then Western sanctions can stop the reproduction of export-oriented sectors of the Russian economy, as well as paralyze the activities of a number of systemically important banks and corporations. In particular, immediate measures are needed to replace external loans of state corporations and banks with targeted loans provided by the Bank of Russia on similar terms through one of the development institutions or directly against the obligations of borrowers. However, like last year, the Bank of Russia ignores the negative effect of Western sanctions, reinforcing them with its tight monetary policy. Meanwhile, continuing the policy of credit expansion, the monetary authorities of the United States and the EU are easily manipulating the Russian stock market, critically influencing the reproduction of the Russian economy and creating competitive advantages for their corporations, including for the absorption of the most valuable assets. The sustainable development of the Russian economy, its remonetization and modernization, the organization of a long-term loan available for the real sector cannot be ensured without correcting this error.
The total debt of Russian borrowers to Western creditors is $ 560 billion, with foreign exchange reserves of $ 360 billion. This creates the risk of default in the Russian financial system and bankruptcy of many borrowers in the event of a one-time loan request. It can be eliminated by rapid deoffshorization of the economy, which could ensure the cessation of systematic capital outflows and the return of half a trillion dollars of assets under Russian jurisdiction. An important incentive for deoffshorization could be the threat of nationalization of systemically important corporations if their owners refuse to return their assets to the jurisdiction of Russia. As a bonus for the return, you can use the replacement of external loans with internal loans provided on the same terms and on the principles of project financing.
"PRESERVATION OF THE DEPENDENT POSITION OF THE ECONOMY INVOLVES LOSS IN A HYBRID WAR"
The measures listed above do not exhaust the requirements for ensuring economic security, the state of which is unsatisfactory ( Appendix 5). Of the most pressing issues requiring immediate solutions, it is necessary to single out: the depressing state of the investment sector, first of all - machine-tool building, instrument-making, electronic industry; degradation of scientific and technical potential due to repeated underfunding of R&D and the actual elimination of industry science and design institutes during the privatization campaign; disorganization of fundamental science due to its administrative constraint as a result of the reform of the Russian Academy of Sciences; growing technological lag in key areas of growth of the new technological paradigm (nano-, bioengineering and information technologies); excessive dependence on foreign technology in critical industries (aviation, pharmaceuticals, information and communication equipment).
To overcome the overcritical external dependence on the import of foreign equipment, large-scale import substitution programs are needed, balanced in material, financial and labor resources. This cannot be done within the framework of the existing system of economic regulation, in which planning methods have been lost, including drawing up balances, target programming, scientific and technical forecasting, and system design. It is necessary to deploy a strategic planning system with centralization of key functions at the level of the President of Russia ( Appendix 6).
The main threat to economic sanctions is the isolation of Russia from access to new technologies. If it is not neutralized, in a few years our economy will find itself in a state of irreversible lag in the development of production of a new technological order, the entry of which into a long wave of growth will ensure the rearmament of both industry and the army at a qualitatively new level of efficiency. In order to prevent this lag, it is necessary, on the one hand, to multiply the allocations for R&D in key areas of growth of the new technological paradigm. And, on the other hand, to ensure a radical increase in the responsibility of the heads of development institutions for the effective use of the allocated funds. For this, it is necessary to create a modern management system for the scientific and technological development of the country, covering all stages of scientific research and the scientific and production cycle and focused on modernizing the economy based on a new technological paradigm ( Appendix 7).
The proposals described above to strengthen the country's economic security in the context of a global hybrid war being unfolded against Russia are focused mainly on increasing the efficiency of state institutions. Along with this, favorable conditions for entrepreneurial initiative and the growth of private business activity should be maintained. In addition to the proposed measures to form internal sources of cheap long-term credit, they should include a tax maneuver in order to transfer the tax burden from production to consumption ( Appendix 8( Appendix 9).
The implementation of the listed measures, and, above all, the elimination of the causes of stagflation and the creation of the necessary conditions for economic growth ( Appendix 10) should be carried out within the next year. Otherwise, the escalation of economic sanctions against Russia will entail the destruction of reproduction circuits that are locked on the external market and a sharp drop in the level of income of economic entities, the halt of many import-dependent industries, as well as the bankruptcy of many enterprises dependent on external sources of credit. This will entail a tangible drop in the standard of living of the population (by the end of 2015 - to the level of 2003, neutralizing the positive effect of income growth over 10 years), which will enable our opponents to move on to the next phase of the chaotic war against Russia.
Without long-term goal-setting, without the general systemic work of the state, enterprises and citizens to implement the course for sovereign development in the modern socially and technologically advanced understanding, the role of Russia in the world, the stability of the internal social and economic order cannot be guaranteed.
Clear guidelines should be given to all social groups and public opinion on the objective international and domestic situation of the country. Without information and personnel measures, measures to counter economic threats will not be effective enough.
Russia is placed in the conditions of a struggle for its very independent existence, when the preservation of the dependence of the economy on the Western core of the world financial and economic system entails defeat in the hybrid war unleashed by the United States and the threat of loss of national sovereignty. Neutralization of this threat is impossible without changing the model of “embedding” the country in the world economy, forming sovereign sources and development mechanisms, without building a broad anti-war coalition of countries based on the mechanism of equal partnership, mutual benefit and respect for national sovereignty.
In any case, it is required to give a systemic long-term response to the credit and technological embargo imposed for a long time, since the absence of a response provokes the West to introduce the following embargo packages - trade and payments, including freezing foreign exchange assets, disconnecting Russian banks from international payment and information systems, deteriorating conditions Russian exports.
We are talking about urgent and systemic (interdependent) measures to mobilize the state and society to repel threats to the very existence of Russia as a sovereign state. At the same time, such measures should objectively be comprehensive: not only defense and diplomacy (which refers to the field of geopolitics), but also the restoration of control over internal markets, including currency control, as well as integration with partners, the formation of a layered system of protecting economic interests RF, monitoring and proactive response to growing threats to national security in the field of economics.
The Security Council should play the role of a "civilian General Staff", formulating an adequate strategic plan to counter threats, in the implementation of which all governing bodies of the country's economy are involved.
Annex 1
HOW BRICS COUNTRIES GET OWN INTERNATIONAL PAYMENT SYSTEM
(this part of the document was drawn up on the eve of the BRICS summit in Ufa -
approx. ed.)
Dissatisfaction with the current global system with the undivided domination of the United States in it is characteristic of all BRICS countries and can serve as a cementing basis for the formation of their monetary and financial union based on the gradual weakening of dependence on the dollar-centric system.
1. Formation of a joint international payment system of the BRICS countries, taking into account plans to create a Russian national payment system.
Currently, national payment systems exist in all BRICS countries, and the Chinese national payment system China UnionPay has already become international.
For reference:
China UnionPay(hereinafter - CUP) as the national payment system of China was established in 2002. Its shareholders are more than 200 Chinese financial institutions, the largest of which owns about 6% of the shares. Payment cardsUnionPay (UP) are now accepted in nearly 150 and produced in over 30 countries. The number of ATMs accepting them exceeded 1 million, and by the number of issued cards (almost 3.5 billion, or 34% of the total world issue)UP- global leader (onVisaaccounts for about 25% of the global issue of payment cards,Master Card- 19%) To RussiaCUPcame in 2008 after signing an agreement with the Russian Evrofinance Mosnarbank on the joint issue of a card for Russian users.
The task of forming its own national payment system, which is currently being solved in Russia, should be compatible with the well-established international payment systems. This can be done in cooperation with the Chinese side, which will require the conclusion of an appropriate framework agreement. With appropriate steps by other BRICS countries, it is possible to successfully promote on the global market (by countries with a total population of over 3 billion people) a new international payment system with a card compatible with all national payment systems of the BRICS countries. Russia, on the other hand, can become a pioneer in issuing such a card during the formation of a national payment system.
If the issue of issuing a common BRICS payment card is included in the agenda of the Summit in Ufa, the final document may instruct central banks and finance ministries to work out this issue jointly with the BRICS Business Council and submit agreed practical proposals for the next BRICS Summit.
2. Establishment of a joint multilateral investment guarantee agency(like MIGA in the World Bank Group), which, when determining the size of the insurance premium, will be guided by the risk assessments of the rating agencies of the BRICS countries.
3. Developmentinternational standards for determining ratings and activities of rating agencies in order to reduce the systemic distortion of the risk assessment of assets quoted on the market in favor of a particular country, as well as to ensure unified international regulation of rating agencies. At the level of the BRICS countries, determine the appropriate certification and licensing procedures for rating agencies, the assessments of which must be internationally recognized. The BRICS Development Bank, which is being formed, can be used for this purpose. A similar approach should be applied to the activities of audit companies and legal consultants.
4. Creation of our own global system of international settlements, an alternative to the SWIFT system that currently dominates in interbank settlements, which will give an impetus to the expansion of the use of GLONASS, as well as the development of fiber-optic communications.
5 ... Harmonization of rules for the operation of national monetary authorities when it is necessary to protect their monetary and financial systems from speculative attacks and suppress the associated turbulence. Contrary to the position of the United States and the IMF, it is advisable to agree on the recognition of the need to create national systems of protection against global risks of financial destabilization, including: a) the institution of reserves for foreign exchange transactions of capital flows; b) tax on income from the sale of assets by non-residents, the rate of which depends on the period of ownership of the asset; c) Tobin tax (including on operations with foreign currencies - capital export tax); d) providing countries with the opportunity to impose restrictions on the cross-border movement of capital on operations that pose a threat to national security.
6. Discussion of a joint initiative to form a system of international regulation of the global information infrastructure.
Taking into account the global significance of the Internet, payment systems, interbank settlement systems, operational computer systems and other communicative means of ensuring the world order, the issues of their administration should be removed from the national jurisdiction to the global level and accepted (as is the case in other important global issues - climate, navigation and others) international agreements and rules excluding discriminatory access to these world infrastructures.
7. Creation of an intelligent and predictive network of scientific institutions of the BRICS countries with the aim of developing a new architecture of the global monetary and financial system, working out joint development plans, defining common interests and measures for their implementation, as well as recommendations in the field of integration policy (as opposed to the Washington consensus, the new paradigm of economic policy could be called the BRICS consensus).
Appendix 2
HOW TO REDUCE THE LOSS OF 60 BILLION DOLLARS PER YEAR: MEASURES AGAINST OFFSHORE AND CAPITAL OUTFLOW
The experience of the 2008 crisis revealed the high vulnerability of the Russian economy to the global financial market, which is regulated in ways that are discriminatory for Russia, including the understatement of credit ratings, the imposition of uneven requirements for the openness of the domestic market and compliance with financial restrictions, the imposition of mechanisms of unequal foreign economic exchange, in which Russia annually loses about 100 billion dollars. Including, about 60 billion dollars leaves the country in the form of a balance of income from foreign loans and investments, and about 50 billion dollars is illegal capital flight. The accumulated volume of the latter reached 0.5 trillion. dollars, which together with direct foreign investments of Russian residents is about 1 trillion. dollars of exported capital. The loss of revenues to the budgetary system due to capital flight amounted to 839 billion rubles in 2012. (1.3% of GDP). The total amount of losses to the budgetary system due to the offshorization of the economy, capital flight and other tax evasion operations is estimated in 2012 at 5 trillion. rub.
A special threat to national security in the context of growing global instability is created by the current situation with the registration of property rights to a large part of large Russian non-state corporations and their assets (up to 80%) in offshore zones, where the bulk of transactions with their turnover are carried out. They also account for about 85% of FDI stock, both to Russia and from Russia. The growing emission of unsecured world currencies creates favorable conditions for foreign capital to take over Russian assets transferred to offshore jurisdictions, which threatens the country's economic sovereignty.
The growth of the above threats in excess of critical parameters requires the implementation of the following set of measures to ensure Russia's economic security in the context of growing global instability in the shortest possible time.
1. On deoffshorization and termination of illegal export of capital:
1.1 Legislatively introduce the concept of a "national company" that meets the requirements of registration, tax residency and main activity in Russia, belonging to Russian residents who have no affiliation with foreign entities and jurisdictions. Only national companies and Russian resident citizens should be given access to subsoil and other natural resources, government orders, government programs, government subsidies, loans, concessions, property and property management, housing and infrastructure construction, operations with the population's savings, as well as others. strategically important for the state and sensitive for society types of activity;
1.2 To oblige the ultimate owners of shares in Russian strategic enterprises to register their ownership rights to them in Russian registrars, emerging from the offshore shadow;
1.3 Conclude agreements on the exchange of tax information with offshores, denounce existing agreements with them on the avoidance of double taxation, including Cyprus and Luxembourg, which are transit offshores. Determine a single list of offshore companies, including those located inside onshores;
1.4 Legally prohibit the transfer of assets to offshore jurisdictions with which there are no agreements on the exchange of tax information according to the transparency model developed by the OECD;
1.5 Introduce, in relation to offshore companies owned by Russian residents, requirements for compliance with Russian legislation on the provision of information about company participants (shareholders, investors, beneficiaries), as well as on the disclosure of tax information for tax purposes in Russia, all income received from Russian sources under threat establishing a 30% tax on all transactions with "non-cooperating" offshore companies;
1.6 Create a "black list" of foreign banks participating in dubious financial schemes with Russian companies and banks, classifying transactions with them as dubious;
1.7 Introduce a permitting procedure for offshore operations for Russian companies with state participation;
1.8 Develop a Presidential program for deoffshorization of the Russian economy, taking into account the provisions of the President's Addresses to the Federal Assembly in 2012 and 2013, Presidential Decree No. 596 of May 7, 2012;
1.9 To take a set of measures to reduce tax losses from unauthorized export of capital: 1) VAT refunds to exporters only after the receipt of export proceeds; 2) collection of advance payments for VAT by authorized banks when transferring import advances to non-resident suppliers; 3) the introduction of fines for overdue receivables under import contracts, non-receipt of export earnings, as well as for other types of illegal export of capital in the amount of its value;
1.10 Stop including in non-operating expenses (reducing taxable profit) bad debts of non-residents to Russian enterprises. Submission of claims against managers for compensation for damage to the enterprise and the state in the event that such debts are identified;
1.11 To toughen administrative and criminal liability for illegal export of capital from the territory of the member states of the Customs Union, including in the form of feigned foreign trade and credit transactions, payment of inflated interest on foreign loans;
1.12 To begin active work of law enforcement agencies to extend the effect of Article 174 of the Criminal Code "Legalization (laundering) of funds or other property acquired by other persons by criminal means" for income obtained by committing tax crimes and by illegal export of capital, as well as inclusion in tax crimes of non-payment of taxes in the presence of a taxable base;
1.13 Introduce taxes on speculative financial transactions (the planned Tobin tax in the EU) and net capital outflow;
1.14 Improve the information and statistical basis for countering the offshorization of the economy, capital flight and tax minimization, including obtaining data on the balance of payments and international investment position from all offshore companies in the country context.
2. In order to prevent further losses of the Russian financial system due to unequal foreign economic exchange and to protect the financial market from threats of destabilization:
2.1 To suppress illegal operations for the export of capital, accompanied by tax evasion, create a unified information system of currency and tax control, including the electronic declaration of transaction passports with their transfer to the databases of all currency and tax control authorities, the introduction of liability standards for heads of enterprises that allow the accumulation of overdue accounts receivable for export-import operations;
2.2 To streamline the financial market, including: to strengthen supervision over the financial condition of professional participants, pricing and the level of market risks; create a national clearing and settlement center; regulate the activities of financial conglomerates and their aggregate risks;
2.3 Stop discrimination against domestic borrowers and issuers against foreign ones (when calculating liquidity indicators, capital adequacy, etc., the Central Bank should not consider the obligations of non-residents and foreign countries more reliable and liquid than similar obligations of residents and the Russian state). Introduce domestic standards for the activities of rating agencies and abandon the use of assessments of foreign rating agencies in government regulation;
2.4 Introduce restrictions on the amount of off-balance sheet foreign assets and liabilities to non-residents on derivatives of Russian organizations, restrict investments of Russian enterprises in foreign securities, including government bonds of the United States and other foreign countries with high budget deficits or government debt;
2.5 Introduce advance notice of capital outflow operations, increase reserve requirements for Russian banks for operations in foreign currency, set limits on the increase in the foreign exchange position of commercial banks;
2.6 Accelerate the creation of a central depository in which to organize the registration of ownership rights for all shares of Russian enterprises;
2.7 To establish normatively the obligatory primary placements of Russian issuers on Russian trading floors.
3. In order to increase the potential and security of the Russian monetary system and strengthen its position in the world economy, give the ruble the functions of an international reserve currency and form a Moscow financial center:
3.1 To stimulate the transition in mutual settlements in the CIS to rubles, in settlements with the EU - to rubles and euros, with China - to rubles and yuan. Recommend that business entities switch to settlements in rubles for exported and imported goods and services. At the same time, provide for the allocation of tied ruble loans to states-importers of Russian products in order to maintain trade turnover, use for these purposes credit and foreign exchange swaps;
3.2 To radically expand the system of servicing settlements in national currencies between enterprises of the CIS countries through the Interstate Bank of the CIS, with other states - using international financial organizations controlled by Russia (IBEC, IIB, EDB, etc.);
3.3 Create a payment and settlement system in the national currencies of the EurAsEC member states. Develop and implement its own independent international settlement system that could eliminate the critical dependence on the US-controlled SWIFT system. Include in it the banks of Russia and the member states of the Customs Union and the CIS, as well as China, Iran, India, Syria. Venezuela and other traditional partners;
3.4 The Bank of Russia should recommend refinancing commercial banks against ruble-denominated lending for export-import operations, and also take into account the additional demand for rubles in the main directions of monetary policy in connection with the expansion of foreign trade turnover in rubles and the formation of foreign ruble reserves of foreign states and banks;
3.5 Organize exchange trading in oil, oil products, timber, mineral fertilizers, metals, other raw materials in rubles; in order to ensure market pricing and prevent the use of transfer prices for tax evasion, oblige producers of exchange commodities to sell through exchanges registered by the Government of Russia at least half of their products, including those supplied for export;
3.6 Limit foreign borrowing by state-controlled corporations; gradually replace foreign currency loans of state-controlled companies with ruble loans from state commercial banks through their targeted refinancing by the Central Bank at an appropriate percentage;
3.7 Limit the provision of guarantees for deposits of citizens within the framework of the deposit insurance system only in ruble deposits with a simultaneous increase in the required reserve ratios for deposits in foreign currency;
3.8 Create a Reinsurance Company on the basis of the Export Insurance Agency of Russia using the guarantees of Vnesheconombank instead of direct investments to fill the authorized capital of the company; providing him with a dominant position in the market for reinsurance of risks of Russian residents;
3.9 To create a Moscow club of lenders and investors to coordinate the lending and investment policy of Russian banks and funds abroad, work on the return of problem loans, and develop a common position in relation to default borrowing countries.
Appendix 4
HOW TO STABILIZE BANKS AND RELEASE A DOLLAR AND EURO
As the world experience shows, for the realization of the emerging opportunities for the rise on the new wave of growth of the new technological order, a powerful initiating impulse for the renewal of fixed capital is required. However, the level of investment and innovation activity required for this is twice that of the Russian financial and investment system.
One of the main obstacles to the development of the Russian economy during the entire post-Soviet period was the policy of quantitative restrictions on the money supply by the Central Bank (Central Bank) when issuing rubles mainly to increase foreign exchange reserves. The consequences of this policy were: underdevelopment of mechanisms for refinancing economic activity, lack of long-term money and internal sources of investment lending, subordination of the evolution of the economy to external demand, which became the key reason for its resource orientation.
The Bank of Russia published on September 12 this year. the draft "Basic directions of the unified state monetary policy for 2015 and the period of 2016 and 2017" set the goal of reducing inflation in 2 years to 4%, while disclaiming responsibility for the state of other parameters of the financial market: the policy does not set targets for any other economic parameters other than inflation. " Such an "anti-inflationary mania" by the Central Bank already cost Russia a "lost decade" in the 90s. In the current circumstances, the refusal to target the conditions of economic growth (by planning the monetary base, which is 2-3 times lower than the norm in our country) and the exchange rate will lead to stagnation of the economy.
According to the International Competitiveness Report 2013-2014, Russia is in 124th place (out of 148 countries) in the world in terms of the level of confidence of the business community in the sustainability of the national banking system. This confidence has dropped even lower due to the revocation of licenses from 81 credit institutions since the beginning of 2013. The interests of about half a million people, who kept about 200 billion rubles in these banks, suffered, a quarter of which was lost. Including, about 4 thousand individual entrepreneurs have lost a significant part of their funds. Legal entities suffered billions of dollars in irreparable losses, spurring a new surge in capital flight. The banking panic that arose among a part of the population and the business community caused an outflow of deposits and flight from the ruble, which poses serious threats to the stability of the country's monetary and financial system.
To ensure expanded reproduction, the Russian economy needs a significant increase in the level of monetization, expansion of credit and the capacity of the banking system. Urgent measures are needed to stabilize it, which requires an increase in the supply of liquidity and an intensification of the Central Bank's role as a lender of last resort. Unlike the economies of the countries issuing reserve currencies, the main problems in the Russian economy are caused not by an excess of money supply and associated financial bubbles, but by the chronic under-monetisation of the economy, which has been working for a long time due to an acute shortage of loans and investments.
The required level of money supply for raising investment and innovation activity should be determined by the demand for money from the real sector of the economy and state development institutions with the regulating value of the refinancing rate. At the same time, the transition to inflation targeting should not occur at the expense of refusing to implement other goals of macroeconomic policy, including ensuring a stable ruble exchange rate, growth in investment, production and employment. These goals can be ranked by priority and set in the form of restrictions, achieved through the flexible use of instruments at the disposal of the state for regulating the monetary and foreign exchange sphere. In the current environment, priority should be given to the growth of production and investment within the established limits on inflation and the ruble exchange rate. At the same time, in order to keep inflation within the established limits, a comprehensive system of measures is needed for pricing and pricing policy, currency and banking regulation, and the development of competition.
From the theory of economic development and the practice of developed countries, it follows that an integrated approach to the formation of money supply in conjunction with the goals of economic development and relying on internal sources of money emission follows. The most important of them is the mechanism of refinancing of credit institutions, which is closed on lending to the real sector of the economy and investments in priority areas of development. This can be done through the use of indirect (refinancing secured by the obligations of the state and solvent enterprises) and direct (co-financing of government programs, provision of government guarantees, funding of development institutions) methods of emission of money, well-known and proven in the practice of developed countries. You should also not exclude the possibility of directing the emission of money for government needs, as is done in the United States, Japan, and the EU through the acquisition of government debt by central banks.
For the formation of a modern national credit and financial system, adequate to the tasks of raising investment activity in order to modernize and develop the Russian economy, the following set of measures is proposed.
1. Adjustment of the monetary system for development and expansion of lending opportunities for the real sector.
1.1. Legislative inclusion in the list of goals of the state monetary policy and activities of the Bank of Russia, creating conditions for economic growth, increased investment and employment.
1.2. Transition to the regulation of the money supply through the establishment of the refinancing rate with the issuance of money, mainly for the refinancing of commercial banks against the collateral of credit claims to manufacturing enterprises, government bonds and development institutions. At the same time, the refinancing rate should not exceed the average rate of return in the investment complex minus the bank margin (2-3%), and the terms for granting loans should correspond to the typical duration of the research and production cycle in the manufacturing industry (up to 7 years). Access to the refinancing system should be open for all commercial banks on universal terms, as well as for development banks on special terms corresponding to the profile and goals of their activities (including, taking into account the expected return on investment in infrastructure - up to 20-30 years under 1 -2%).
1.3. Cardinal expansion of the Central Bank's Lombard List, including bills of exchange and bonds of solvent enterprises operating in priority areas, development institutions, guarantees of the federal government, federal subjects and municipalities.
1.4. In order to avoid stimulating the export of capital and currency speculation, the acceptance of foreign securities and foreign assets of Russian banks as collateral for Lombard and other loans from the Central Bank should be stopped.
1.5. A significant increase in the resource potential of development institutions due to their funding by the Central Bank for investment projects approved by the government in accordance with the established priority areas of development. Development institutions should place such loans on the principles of targeted lending to specific projects, providing for the allocation of money exclusively for the expenses established by them without transferring money to the borrower's account.
1.7. In order to ensure stable lending conditions, prohibit commercial banks from unilaterally revising the terms of loan agreements.
1.8. Change the valuation standards for collateral using medium-term weighted average market prices and limit the application of margin requirements. Including, provide for the refusal of margin requirements for borrowers by the Bank of Russia and banks with state participation.
2. Creation of the necessary conditions for increasing the capacity of the Russian monetary and financial system.
2.1. Gradually switch to the use of rubles in international settlements on trade transactions of state corporations, to carry out a consistent replacement of their foreign currency loans with ruble loans from state commercial banks with the provision of appropriate funding from the Central Bank.
2.2. In order to ensure the stability of the ruble exchange rate, expand the instruments for regulating the supply and demand of foreign currency by providing for the possibility of levying export duties in foreign currency with its accumulation in the government's foreign currency accounts in the event of an excess supply of foreign currency and the introduction by the Bank of Russia of a rule for mandatory full or partial sale of foreign currency earnings of exporters by the domestic market in case of insufficient supply.
2.3. Fixing the exchange rate quotes pegged to the ruble, and not to the dollar and euro, as is currently the case. Establishment of pre-announced boundaries of fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate, maintained for a long time. With the threat of going beyond these boundaries, carrying out a one-time change in the exchange rate with the establishment of new boundaries in order to avoid provoking an avalanche-like capital flight and currency speculation against the ruble, as well as to ensure instant stabilization of its exchange rate.
2.4. In order to prevent the flow of money issued for the refinancing of production activities and investments to the financial and foreign exchange markets, it is necessary to ensure the targeted use of such loans through the relevant rules of banking supervision. Introduce restrictions on changes in the foreign exchange position of commercial banks resorting to refinancing of the Central Bank. To limit financial speculation, expand the financial leverage regulation system to include non-bank companies.
2.5. Creation of the EurAsEC payment and settlement system on the basis of the Interstate Bank of the CIS with its own systems for exchanging information between banks, assessing credit risks, and quoting currency exchange rates.
3. Stabilization of the banking system.
It is necessary to take the following measures to eliminate the threats of destabilization of the banking system arising in connection with the chain of bankruptcies of commercial banks deprived of their licenses.
3.1. Providing commercial banks with the opportunity to immediately obtain stabilization loans in order to meet the panic claims of individuals in the amount of up to 25% of the volume of deposits of citizens.
3.2. The resumption of unsecured credit auctions by the Bank of Russia for banks experiencing a liquidity shortage.
3.3. Take urgent measures to maintain the banks' current liquidity: reduce contributions to the Mandatory Reserve Fund; increasing the possibilities of lending to banks secured by “non-marketable assets”; expanding the variety of such assets. If necessary, set decreasing coefficients when calculating the value of risk-weighted assets for Russian enterprises rated by Russian rating agencies. Ensure transparency and automatism of financial assistance mechanisms.
3.4. To develop a methodology for the formation and determine a list of strategic enterprises, loans to which are refinanced on preferential terms.
3.5. To harshly suppress the attempts of a number of commercial banks to provoke a banking panic in order to entice customers, to introduce criminal liability for such actions.
3.6. Postpone the implementation of Basel-3 standards in Russia for 2-3 years - until the volume of lending to the real sector of the economy is restored at the pre-crisis level of the first half of 2008. Adjust Basel-3 standards in order to remove artificial restrictions on investment activities. Within the framework of Basel-2, the calculation of credit risk should be carried out on the basis of internal ratings of banks instead of ratings of international agencies, the insolvency and lack of professionalism of which manifested itself during the financial crisis of 2007-2008.
When shaping monetary policy, the Bank of Russia should assess the macroeconomic consequences of the emission of rubles through various channels: for refinancing commercial banks against the obligations of industrial enterprises, against bonds of the state and development institutions, against replacing foreign currency loans, against the acquisition of foreign rubles for lending foreign trade turnover, capital operations and the formation of ruble reserves of foreign states and banks. The methodological support of this work, including the construction of simulation economic and mathematical models of monetary circulation, could be undertaken by the Russian Academy of Sciences in cooperation with the research division of the Bank of Russia.
Appendix 5
HOW TO ENSURE THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC SECURITY OF RUSSIA
The results of measurements of indicators of the socio-economic situation of Russia in relation to the extreme-critical values established as a result of scientific research indicate an unsatisfactory state of socio-economic security ( extremely critical such a value of the indicator is considered, going beyond the boundaries of which indicates the emergence of a threat to the functioning of the economy and the life of society due to a violation of the normal course of the processes reflected by this indicator).
Below are estimates of the actual state of indicators reflecting reproduction and the ability to develop the socio-economic system of Russia in comparison with the critical values. At the same time, those ratios that require managerial influence on the part of government bodies are highlighted in red.
Table 1. Estimates characterizing the reproduction of human potential in Russia
| Indicator | Utterly critical meaning | The actual condition 2013 g. | The actual meaning to the utmost critical |
| Fertility rate (per 1000 population) | 22 | 13,2 | 1.6 times worse |
| Mortality rate (people per 1000 inhabitants) | 12,5 | 13 | 1.04 worse |
| Natural increase (people per 1000 inhabitants) | 12,5 | 0,2 | 62 times worse |
| Life expectancy (years) | 78 | 70,7 | 1.1 times worse |
| The gap between the incomes of the 10% richest and 10% of the poorest groups (at times) | 8 | 16,2 | 2 times worse |
| Gini coefficient | 0,3 | 0,4 | 1.3 times worse |
| Share of population with incomes below the subsistence level (%) | 7 | 11 | 1.6 times worse |
| Unemployment rate | 5 | 5,5 | 1.1 times worse |
| Crime rate (number of registered crimes per 100 thousand people) | 1000 | 1539 | 1.5 times worse |
| The ratio of the average per capita money income of the population and the size of the subsistence minimum (times) | 3,5 | 3,4 | Within normal limits |
| Total fertility rate (average number of children born to a woman at fertile age) | 2,15 | 1,6 | 1.3 times worse |
| Population aging rate (proportion of people 65 years of age and older to the total population,%) | 7 | 12,9 | Within normal limits |
| Human Development Index (HDI) (items) | 0,800 | 0,778 | Within normal limits |
| Alcohol consumption rate (liters of absolute alcohol per capita) | 8 | 13,5 | 1.7 times worse |
| Share of people who use drugs (%) | 7 | 6 | Within normal limits |
| The number of suicides (per 100 thousand people) | 20 | 19,6 | Within normal limits |
Table 2. Estimates characterizing the reproduction of Russia's economic potential
| Indicator | Utterly critical meaning | The actual condition 2013 g. | Conformity |
| Investment in fixed assets (% of GDP) | 25 | 19,8 | 1.25 times worse |
| Depreciation of fixed assets (%) | 40 | 78 | 1.95 times worse |
| Share of mechanical engineering in industry (%) | 25 | 14 | 1.79 times worse |
| Share of manufacturing industries in industry (%) | 70 | 64,8 | 1.08 times worse |
| Share of unprofitable organizations (% of the total number of operating organizations) | 25 | 27,3 | 1.1 times worse |
| Production profitability (%) | 15 | 9,5 | 1.09 times worse |
| Return on assets (%) | 12 | 6,8 | 1.8 times worse |
| Inflation rate (%) | 15 | 6,5 | Within normal limits |
| Social inflation rate (%) | 15 | about 15 | Within normal limits |
| The share of domestic production in the formation of resources of meat and meat products in the domestic market (%) | 70 | 61,3 | 1.14 times worse |
| Share of material production in GDP (%) | 66 | 39 | 1.7 times worse |
| Monetization level (M2) at the end of the year (% of GDP) | 75 | 41 | 1.8 times worse |
Table 3. Estimates characterizing the external economic dependence of Russia
| Utterly critical meaning | The actual condition 2013 g. | Conformity | |
| Adequacy ratio of international reserves (% to the three-month volume of imports of goods and services) | 9 | 40 | 4.4 times better |
| Total external debt (% of GDP at the end of the year) | 25 | 34,8 | 1.4 times worse |
| Share of imported equipment in domestic demand (%) | 30 | 65,6 | 2.18 times worse |
| Share of imported food in GDP (%) | 25-30 | 32 | 1.07-1.28 times worse |
| Export share in material production (%) | 25 | 94 | 3.76 times worse |
| Share of foreign capital in investments (%) | 25 | 36 | 1.44 times worse |
| The volume of foreign liabilities of commercial banks and other sectors (% of GDP) | 25 | 31 | 1.24 times worse |
| Share of overdue and non-returned foreign loans (% of the total amount of loans received) Share of foreign investors in the ownership structure of publicly traded shares (%) | 25 | 50 | 2 times worse 2 times worse |
| Share of foreign loans to M2 (%) | 20 | 27 | 1.35 times worse |
| Trade deficit: according to balance of payments methodology (%) | 15 | Surplus | Within normal limits |
| GDP to world volume (%) | 7,5 | 2,7 | 2.7 times worse |
| GDP per capita (%) | 100 | 107 | Within normal limits |
| Volume of foreign currency in relation to the ruble mass in national currency (%) | 10 | 50 | 5 times worse |
| The volume of foreign currency in cash to the volume of cash rubles (%) | 25 | 100 | 4 times worse |
| Share of expenditures on servicing external public debt (% of total federal budget expenditures) | 20 | 1,9 | Within normal limits |
| The ratio of the volume of foreign trade turnover (% to GDP) | 30 | 107 | 3.5 times worse |
Table 4. Estimates characterizing the competitiveness of the Russian economy
| Utterly critical meaning | The actual condition 2013 g. | Conformity | |
| Share of innovatively active enterprises (%) | 40 | 10,1 | 4 times worse |
| Share of manufacturing products in exports (%) | 50 | 23 | 2.17 times worse |
| Shipped innovative products (% of all industrial products) | 15-20 | 8,9 | 2 times worse |
| The share of new types of products in the total volume of engineering products (%) | 7 | 2,6 | 3.7 times worse |
| Research spending (% of GDP) | 3 | 1,5 | 2 times worse |
| Specific indicators of energy consumption (tons of oil per thousand dollars of GDP): | |||
| total energy costs | 0,15 | 1,65 | 11 times worse |
| electricity costs | 0,02 | 0,17 | 8.5 times worse |
| oil and gas costs | 0,1 | 1,16 | 11.6 times worse |
| Losses of minerals in the mining process (% of the total volume) | 3-8 | 10-65 | 3.3-8.1 times worse |
| Average annual growth rate of labor productivity (%) | 6 | 3 | 2 times worse |
| Share of Russian high-tech products in the world market (%) | 3 | 0,3 | 10 times worse |
| Share of intellectual property in business value (%) | 25 | 10 | 2.5 times worse |
| Share of government spending on the environment in GDP (%) | 5 | 0,8 | 6.3 times worse |
Appendix 6
HOW TO RETURN FROM A NATURAL MARKET TO A "PLANNED ECONOMY"
The implementation of the import substitution policy should be carried out within the framework of the general strategy for the advanced development of the economy and begin with the deployment of a strategic planning system designed to ensure the systematic use of the state's resources for modernization and new industrialization of the economy based on a new technological order.
The strategic planning methodology provides for a system of long-, medium- and short-term forecasts and the choice of priorities for economic development, tools and mechanisms for their implementation, including a system of long-term concepts, medium-term programs and plans, institutions for organizing relevant activities, as well as methods of control and responsibility for achieving the set goals. goals.
The recently adopted draft law "On State Strategic Planning" provides for the creation of only some elements of this system, mainly - procedures for the preparation of relevant documents within the framework of the executive branch.
Interactive procedures for developing long-term forecasts and concepts, medium-term programs and indicative plans for achieving agreed and approved development goals should be established. It is advisable to legislatively establish methods of control and mechanisms of responsibility of all participants in strategic planning on the basis of public-private partnership for the implementation of agreed activities and tasks. Integration of development institutions, major corporations, companies and banks with state participation, large private financial and industrial groups into the system of state strategic planning is especially important. Their combined production, financial and management potential must be integrated not only in developing a strategy, but also in its implementation.
It is also necessary to set target indicators for the work of state development institutions, corporations and agencies in the areas of their activities, providing for the creation of new technological order industries that are competitive on the world market, and introduce mechanisms of real responsibility for their timely achievement.
The system of forecasting and planning the socio-economic development of the country and its regions should be based on the national legal framework and contain a single organizational and legal mechanism for interaction between federal and regional government bodies, local government bodies, development institutions, scientific organizations and corporations. This mechanism should ensure the integration of interests and resource capabilities of all stakeholders in the development and implementation of federal and regional, municipal, departmental and corporate strategic plans and programs. The constituent entities of the Russian Federation and municipalities should be able to participate in the development, financing and implementation of federal target programs carried out on their territory.
Strategic planning should focus on the outstripping growth of the new technological order. It is advisable to develop a 5-year program for the modernization of the economy on its basis, which provides for measures for the advanced development of its production and technological complexes, the creation of a favorable macroeconomic environment for this, and the formation of appropriate institutions and management circuits.
Strategic planning should take into account the transition of modern society to a knowledge economy, the main growth factor of which is scientific and technological progress. Bringing the economy to the trajectory of rapid and sustainable growth presupposes its transfer to an innovative path of development, which requires a radical increase in the role of science both in the economy and in the public administration system.
Taking into account the importance of the strategic planning system and the fact that the Government of the Russian Federation as the central executive body is loaded with current tasks and cannot formulate strategic goals and control their achievement, it is proposed to create the State Committee for Strategic Planning under the President of the Russian Federation (SCSP RF), giving his following powers:
one). Determination of internal and external conditions, trends, restrictions, imbalances, imbalances, as well as opportunities, including financial, socio-economic development of the Russian Federation;
2) determining the ways and means of implementing the priorities of the socio-economic policy, goals and objectives of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation, determined by the President of the Russian Federation;
3) coordination of the work of the subjects of strategic planning on the choice of ways and means of achieving the goals and objectives of the socio-economic policy of the Russian Federation, strengthening the national security of the Russian Federation, ensuring the most efficient use of available resources;
4) the formation, on the basis of the strategic planning documents approved by the President of the Russian Federation, a set of measures to ensure the achievement of goals and the solution of problems of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation and the strengthening of the national security of the Russian Federation;
5) coordination of actions of participants in strategic planning and measures provided for by strategic planning documents in the field of socio-economic development and ensuring the national security of the Russian Federation, including directions of budgetary policy, in terms of their implementation time, expected results and parameters of resource provision;
7) organization of monitoring and control over the implementation of strategic planning documents; scientific and technical, informational, resource and personnel support for strategic planning.
The structure of the GKSP RF:
The leadership of the SCSP RF is carried out by the Chairman in the rank of Deputy Chairman of the Government, approved by the President of the Russian Federation.
The Collegium of the SCSP RF is a body that carries out collegial management of the SCSP activities, headed by the Chairman. The Collegium includes the heads of ministries and departments of the social and economic block of the Government, the Chairman of the Bank of Russia, the President of the Russian Academy of Sciences, heads of development institutions.
Appendix 7
HOW TO STOP THE "BRAIN LEAK" AND RETURN SCIENCE UNDER STATE CARE
At present, a critical situation has developed in the Russian Federation with the development of scientific research, the implementation of technological modernization of production associated with the transition to a new technological order. The reasons for the unfavorable situation lie in the chronic underfunding of the development of science, the destruction of cooperation between science and industry, the aging of scientific personnel, and the “brain drain”. They were largely the result of privatization, which led to the destruction of the industrial sector of applied science. The ongoing reform of the Russian Academy of Sciences does not touch upon these main problems of scientific and technological progress, does not envisage the improvement of institutional forms and methods of organizing applied research, and is not focused on the development and implementation of highly effective science-intensive technologies.
In order to implement a systematic approach to the management of scientific and technological progress, through and all-round stimulation of innovative activity, it is advisable to create a supra-departmental federal body responsible for the development of state scientific, technical and innovation policy, coordination of the activities of sectoral ministries and departments in its implementation - the State Committee for Scientific and Technical Development of the Russian Federation. Federation (State Committee for Science and Technology of the Russian Federation) under the President of Russia.
The main tasks of the State Committee for Science and Technology of the Russian Federation:
Organization of the choice of promising directions of state policy in the field of scientific, scientific, technical and innovative activities of the country;
Coordination of the activities of the Russian Academy of Sciences, federal and regional legislative and executive authorities, investment structures and funds related to the development and implementation of state policy in the field of scientific, scientific, technical and innovative activities in the Russian Federation;
Organizational, legal and economic regulation of the development of promising areas of science, scientific, technical and innovative activities, as well as regulation in the field of intellectual property rights;
Organizational, legal and economic regulation of the development of scientific and technical potential, technological modernization of production, implementation of the results of research and development in the sectors of the economy;
Development and implementation of a unified state policy in the field of international scientific and technical cooperation;
Development of innovation infrastructure within the framework of the national innovation system of Russia, creation of mechanisms to support subjects of innovation activity, ensuring the creation and development of industries based on new and high technologies;
Promoting the attraction and use of advanced high-performance foreign technologies in manufacturing industries;
Ensuring control over the implementation of the legislation of the Russian Federation on the development of scientific, scientific and technical, innovative activities and the protection of intellectual property rights, as well as over the targeted use of state budget funds allocated to finance scientific, scientific, technical and innovative activities in the Russian Federation;
Monitoring the progress of implementation of scientific and technical programs (state, sectoral, regional), sections of scientific and technical support of state target, state national economic and social programs, innovation projects, international scientific and technical projects, as well as the development in production of the results of completed research , experimental design and experimental technological work;
Development of projects of legislative initiatives to stimulate innovative activity of enterprises with exemption from taxation of funds allocated for R&D and the introduction of new technology;
Legal support for registration and compliance with the status of a researcher and research engineer, laboratory, research, design, engineering organization with the granting of rights and privileges that stimulate research and design activities. Consolidation of the principle of self-government of the scientific community, the leading value of the academic councils of scientific and educational organizations;
Promotion of scientific and technical achievements, informing the public about the development of science and technology in the Russian Federation, the activities of the State Committee for Science and Technology of the Russian Federation, the Russian Academy of Sciences, federal executive authorities, executive authorities of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation and local governments; ensuring the development of scientific and scientific and technical potential;
Maintaining a register of high-tech industries and innovative enterprises, assessing the level of their competitiveness in the domestic and foreign markets, creating conditions for the development of high-tech competitive industries;
Organization of state scientific and technical expertise;
Coordination of activities of subordinate organizations and institutions.
Functions of the State Committee for Science and Technology of the Russian Federation:
Assessment, selection and implementation of priority directions of scientific and technological progress;
Formation and implementation of state policy in the field of scientific, scientific, technical and innovative activities of the country;
Coordination of the activities of the Russian Academy of Sciences, federal and regional legislative and executive bodies related to the development and implementation of state policy in the field of scientific, scientific, technical and innovative activities, including federal funds, development institutions, the Federal Agency for Scientific Organizations;
Legal regulation of the development of science, scientific, technical and innovation activities, as well as regulation in the field of intellectual property rights;
Assessment of the level of development of scientific and technical potential, processes of modernization of production, the effectiveness of the implementation of the results of scientific research and development;
Maintaining a system of indicators for assessing the effectiveness of government agencies responsible for financing and organizing scientific research and stimulating innovative activity, including development institutions;
Development and implementation of the state comprehensive long-term program for the modernization of the economy and scientific and technological progress;
Development of a network of venture and other funds financing innovation projects and R&D, creation of a mechanism for financing industry funds to stimulate innovation activity and R&D through voluntary contributions from corporations with their attribution to the cost of production;
Assistance in the development of a system of training scientific personnel and highly qualified engineering and technical personnel for science-intensive sectors of the economy;
Development and implementation of state policy in the field of international scientific and technical cooperation;
Development of the infrastructure of the innovation system of Russia;
Promoting the attraction and use of advanced high-performance foreign technologies;
Stimulating and supporting the development of entrepreneurship associated with commercialization and the introduction of scientific and technological achievements into production;
Ensuring control over the targeted use of state budget funds allocated to finance scientific, scientific, technical and innovative activities;
Promotion of scientific and technological achievements, informing the public about the development of science and technology in the Russian Federation;
Organization of state scientific and technical expertise.
The structure of the State Committee for Science and Technology of the Russian Federation:
The leadership of the State Committee for Science and Technology of the Russian Federation is carried out by the Chairman in the rank of Deputy Chairman of the Government, approved by the President of the Russian Federation.
The board of the SCSTD is a body that carries out collegial management of the activities of the SCSTD of the Russian Federation, headed by the Chairman of the SCSTD. The Collegium includes the heads of ministries and departments of the socio-economic block of the Government, the President of the Russian Academy of Sciences, the Director of the Russian Agency for Scientific Organizations, the Chairman of Rospatent, and heads of development institutes.
At the collegium of the State Committee for Science and Technology of the Russian Federation, advisory bodies are created:
- Public Council (representatives of the scientific community and business);
Scientific and Technical Council (state experts).
Under the jurisdiction of the State Committee for Science and Technology of the Russian Federation are:
National scientific centers, science cities, State Scientific Center, federal centers of science and high technologies.
Russian Foundation for Scientific Research, Russian Foundation for Science and Technology, State Fund for Support of Small Innovative Enterprises.
Shared centers, federal laboratories.
Federal Agency for Scientific Organizations.
Technoparks, State Public Library for Science and Technology, Polytechnic Museum, RINKTSE, Center for Research and Science Statistics, Higher Attestation Commission, Rospatent and other subordinate organizations.
The State Committee for Science and Technology of the Russian Federation carries out joint activities with the Russian Academy of Sciences in terms of the formation and implementation of fundamental research programs, the codification of knowledge in the field of technology, the implementation of innovative projects related to the implementation of research results with the support and development of the material and technical base of scientific organizations of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
Appendix 8
HOW TO REDUCE A BUSINESS FROM A TAX LOAD
In December 2011, the President of Russia declared the need for a decisive tax maneuver: "to carefully analyze the situation in specific industries, to make calculations in order to eliminate the significant differentiation of the tax burden between the sectors of the economy."
Indeed, given the same tax burden on GDP in Russia and developed countries, in relation to legal entities in our country, it is 1.8 times higher. At the same time, due to the higher share of wages in the processing industries, the tax burden on taxable profits is 1.5-2 times higher than in the raw materials industries.
Reducing the taxation of business activities can be offset by the introduction of a progressive income tax on individuals, which has become an integral part of the life of most developed countries. The bulk of tax revenues in them falls on individuals, primarily on wealthy citizens. In Russia, on the other hand, more than 70% of tax revenues fall on legal entities, which suppresses business and investment activity. At the same time, net income from individuals to a predominant degree today is associated not with wages, but with income from property. In Russia, the "non-wage" incomes of the richest citizens of the country, which include 20% of the population, make up 65% of their total income, and in Moscow - 90%.
The imposition of high taxes on excess profits has little effect on consumer demand, but the taxation of investment activities is reduced, which is carried out mainly due to depreciation deductions, profits of legal entities and loans. By giving part of their income to the state, entrepreneurs thereby benefit from the growth of investments and assets.
The introduction of a progressive scale for tax on individuals with the highest rate of 40% will increase budget revenues by 5 trillion. rub. (only taxing 130 dollar billionaires of Russia with a 40% tax will increase budget revenues by 1.1 trillion rubles). This will make it possible to exempt from taxation a part of the profit of enterprises directed to investment activities by increasing depreciation to the level of developed countries (60-70% in investment financing).
At the same time, it is necessary to establish legislative control over the expenditure of depreciation deductions. Half of the depreciation charges accrued in 2012 in 4 trillion. rub. was spent not on development, but on financial investments - the purchase of securities, the provision of loans and other operations. As a result, the volume of investments turned out to be 13.7% less than possible. In addition, the state has lost 400 billion rubles to the budget. for income tax.
The transition to depreciation is not based on the assessment of fixed assets in mixed prices, but on replacement cost, will increase investment in fixed assets by the same 5 trillion. rubles, compensated to the budget by the introduction of a progressive income tax. In this case, their volume for 2012 would have amounted not to 12.6, but 17.8 trillion. rubles, their share in GDP would have increased from 20.1 to 28.7%, and the growth rate would have increased to 5-6%. If, in addition to these measures, the terms of renewal of fixed assets are shortened, which was last carried out in 2002, then the effect of increasing investment in fixed assets and accelerating GDP growth will be even greater.
Additional reserves for production growth can be provided by a change in value added taxation, which today stimulates the raw material orientation of the economy and reduces its competitiveness within the framework of the Customs Union in relation to Kazakhstan.
In order to simplify the tax system, reduce the cost of its administration, reduce tax evasion, stimulate business and innovation, it is advisable to replace the value added tax with a sales tax (Sales Tax), which is easier to administer, levied only at the final consumption stage. The drop in budget revenues arising from the abolition of VAT can be compensated by introducing a tax rate of 14%. The abolition of VAT will also lead to savings of more than 1 trillion. rub. on public procurement, will free up about a million accountants for production activities, free up working capital of enterprises to increase production and investments.
Appendix 9
HOW TO LEARN TO SAVE ELECTRICITY
In order to create conditions for the development of the economy, the decision taken by the Government to freeze the tariffs of natural monopolies should be supplemented with the following measures to reduce excess costs in the electric power industry, the elimination of which can save nearly $ 1 trillion in costs. rub. and a 20% reduction in electricity tariffs.
1. Bringing the organization of the electricity market in line with Russian conditions, including the transition to the "Sole customer" model (savings - up to 100 billion rubles).
2. Transition to mechanisms of project financing of investments in new facilities. Financing of investment activities through tariffs should be retained only for simple reproduction (savings - 80 billion rubles).
3. Optimization of the combination of district heating with distributed power generation in load centers (separate generation of revenue is the reason for the loss-making of most combined heat and power plants (CHP), which leads to a loss of interest in the development of this generation sector, the potential of which is estimated at 37 million tons of fuel equivalent per year ) (savings - 50 billion rubles).
4. Imposing responsibility on the subjects of the federation for the development of schemes and programs for the long-term development of 35 kV and lower grids (savings - 10 billion rubles).
5. Imposition of responsibility on JSC Russian Grids and territorial grid organizations (TGOs) for the development of network infrastructure in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation with the introduction of a “one window” for issuing technical conditions for connection (savings - 20 billion rubles).
6. Tightening requirements for the power grid business to stimulate its consolidation in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. Cancellation of subsidies for ineffective TSO due to the "boiler" mechanism (savings - 10 billion rubles).
7. Introduction of standardization of the unit cost of commissioned capacity and a decrease in profitability for the objects of power supply contracts (savings - 30 billion rubles).
8. Reduction of tariffs for new industrial consumers by 15% in energy-surplus ODUs of the East and Siberia (savings - 10 billion rubles).
9. Centralization of power management within the Ministry of Energy, including the merger of commercial and technological operators, as well as regulation of heat markets generated by CHP plants with simultaneous generation of electricity (kWh) (savings - 30 billion rubles).
10. The transition in all constituent entities of the Russian Federation to the development of complex interdependent schemes and general programs for the development of infrastructures of the fuel and energy complex and housing and communal services (savings - 150 billion rubles).
11. The introduction of financial guarantees for recipients of technical specifications for the connection of electrical installations in order to increase the load of new power facilities (the loads of new consumers are used by no more than 20-25%, which means the deadening of investments in the amount of more than 1 trillion rubles.) (Savings - 50 billion . rub.).
12. Adoption of regulations on unconditional payment by consumers for used electric and heat energy (savings - 25 billion rubles).
13. Introduction of the practice of public protection of investment programs
in energy companies and thermal power plants and programs for the development of the infrastructure of the fuel and energy complex (savings - 30 billion rubles).
14. Transition in contracts with contractors to long-term wholesale contracts. Rationing of profitability in sectors of the economy that sell goods, works and services for natural monopolies. To oblige operating organizations to conclude contracts for the maintenance of primary electrical equipment with service organizations of manufacturers. The corresponding procedure for this interaction should be consolidated in the Unified Technical Policy, developed as part of the execution of the Order of the Government of the Russian Federation No. 511-r dated April 3, 2013 (savings - 150 billion rubles per year).
15. Decrease in interest rates and increase in terms of crediting investments in the development of the electric power industry (savings - 70 billion rubles).
It is necessary to conduct an analysis of the efficiency of electricity use in economic sectors to optimize investment and tariff policy. It is also necessary to conduct an audit of the current state of fixed assets to prevent accidents, as well as a check of the actually connected power of consumers to clarify reserves.
It is proposed to prepare a program for replacing the worn-out and obsolete electrical equipment of the United Energy System based on the need for annual renewal of at least 3% of the fleet of transformer equipment (33 GVA per year), reducing the average age of power equipment in transmission and distribution networks (additional renewal of 20 GVA per year until 2017 .).
To study these and other proposals for the optimization of the electric power industry, it is advisable to re-create a working group of the State Council of the Russian Federation of specialists and scientists, representatives of the regions and the consumer community.
Appendix 10
HOW TO NOT GET INTO THE STAGFLATION TRAP AND ENSURE ECONOMIC GROWTH
The main reason for stagflation, which manifests itself in the destabilization of the ruble exchange rate and increased inflation on the one hand, and a fall in investment and economic activity, on the other hand, is capital outflow, the volume of which is expected to be at least $ 100 billion this year, and if the trend of the ruble weakening continues, amount to 120-140 billion dollars (5-7% of GDP). Including, at least one third is illegal outflow (capital flight), committed with the withdrawal of income from taxation with damage to the state budget up to a trillion rubles annually.
The growing capital outflow, the accumulated export of which is estimated at more than a trillion dollars, is associated with the offshorization and openness of the Russian economy unprecedented for large countries, which resulted in the extreme vulnerability of its financial system to external factors. It was clearly manifested in the three-time stock market crash during the crises of 1998 and 2008, from which the proper lessons were never learned.
Currently, more than half of the monetary base is formed for external sources of credit, and 30-40% of non-state investments are carried out through offshore companies. Russia's total external debt exceeded $ 650 billion (74% of debts are denominated in dollars and euros), exceeding the volume of foreign exchange reserves, which is about $ 420 billion. The bulk of external debt falls on corporations and banks, including more than 60% - for those belonging to the state. At the same time, the overwhelming part of external loans was received from countries under the jurisdiction of NATO member states. The sanctions imposed by them entail the withdrawal from Russia of about 11 trillion. rub. until the end of next year. Tighter sanctions could lead to the blocking of Russian capital in offshore zones, through which more than $ 50 billion of investments pass annually.
Due to the destabilization of the ruble exchange rate, citizens' savings are dollarized, which is one of the forms of capital withdrawal, which has already amounted to more than $ 30 billion through this channel.
The Central Bank (CB) is not taking measures either to stop capital outflows or to replace the dwindling external sources of credit with internal ones. Despite the financial war launched by the US leadership against Russia, he is still guided by the dogmas of the Washington Consensus, which subordinate macroeconomic policy to the interests of foreign capital.
The loans allocated by the Bank of Russia to the banking system do not compensate not only the withdrawal of capital by Western creditors, but even the withdrawal of money by the Government into stabilization funds. As a result, there is a contraction of the monetary base, which entails a reduction in credit, a drop in investment and production. By the end of 2015, if the Central Bank's policy does not change, the termination of external credit will entail a sharp reduction in the monetary base by 15-20%, which will cause a spasmodic contraction of the money supply and lead to a fall in investment by more than 5%, and production by 3-4% ...
The contraction of the money supply creates the threat of a financial market collapse, similar to what happened in 2007-2008. Capital outflows provoke defaults by many borrowers, which can become an avalanche. Given the high monopolization of this market by several traders who have access to credit resources of state banks, a collapse can be easily planned with the aim of devaluing and appropriating assets pledged by market participants for loans from banks. This creates the threat of a redistribution of property rights in favor of foreign capital and the establishment of external control over many strategically important enterprises.
The policy of raising the refinancing rate pursued by the Central Bank entails a rise in the cost of loans, reinforces the tendency for the money supply to shrink and aggravates the shortage of money supply with all the above negative consequences. At the same time, inflation does not decrease as a result of the continued action of its non-monetary factors, or an increase in costs due to the rise in the cost of credit, a decrease in production and a fall in the ruble exchange rate. The latter, due to the inaccessibility of credit, does not give a positive effect for the expansion of exports and import substitution. As a result of the deteriorating conditions for the reproduction of capital, capital continues to flee, despite the increase in interest rates. The economy is being artificially pulled into a funnel of declining supply and demand, falling income and investment. Attempts to keep budget revenues by increasing tax pressures exacerbate capital flight and downturn in business activity.
The economy is being pulled into a stagflationary trap solely as a result of the ongoing macroeconomic, monetary and fiscal policies. The decline in production and investment occurs when there are free production capacities, the utilization of which in industries is 30-80%, underemployment, excess of savings over investments, excess of raw materials. The economy operates at no more than 2/3 of its potential capacity, continuing to be a donor to the world financial system.
To get out of the stagflationary trap, it is necessary to stop sliding along the spiral "capital flight - reduction in money supply - falling demand and shrinking credit - rising costs - rising inflation, falling production and investment." To do this, you need to simultaneously take the following actions.
I... To reduce capital outflow
1. Discourage capital flight by introducing a capital flight tax at the VAT rate on questionable non-cash cross-border transactions in foreign currency. In case of confirmation of the legality of these operations (delivery of imported goods, provision of services, confirmation of payment of interest or repayment of a loan, dividends and other legal income on invested capital), the VAT paid is refunded. Before the introduction of such a tax - the reservation of money at the rate of VAT for all dubious cross-border transactions for a period of one year or until their legality is confirmed. Removal of money in foreign currency in the equivalent of over 1 million rubles. also tax capital flight.
2. VAT refunds to exporters shall be carried out only after the receipt of export proceeds.
3. Stop the inclusion of bad debts of non-residents to Russian enterprises in non-operating expenses and file claims against managers for damages to the enterprise and the state if such debts are identified.
4. Introduce restrictions on the amount of off-balance sheet foreign assets and liabilities to non-residents on derivatives of Russian organizations, prohibit investments of Russian enterprises in foreign securities of states that have introduced economic sanctions against Russia.
5. Introduce advance notice on capital outflow operations, set limits on the increase in the foreign exchange position of commercial banks.
6. To establish normatively the obligatory nature of primary placements of Russian issuers on Russian trading floors.
7. To create a unified information system of currency and tax control, including electronic declaration of passports of transactions with their transfer to the databases of all currency and tax control authorities.
8. Introduce the Central Bank's licensing of cross-border operations for the export of capital in foreign currency. Expand the powers and responsibilities of Rosfinmonitoring by granting it the right to suspend any cross-border operations of Russian and foreign legal entities that are carried out with possible violation of currency and anti-money laundering laws.
9. In order to stop internal capital outflow prohibit the opening of deposit accounts in foreign currency, as well as the accumulation of money in previously opened accounts. Limit the operation of the system of guaranteeing bank deposits of citizens only to deposits in rubles.
10. To stop the export of capital through insurance channels stop concluding insurance contracts in foreign currency. Create a Reinsurance Company on the basis of the Export Insurance Agency of Russia; to give him a dominant position in the market for reinsurance of risks of Russian residents.
11. In order to de-dollarize the economy to establish higher standards for reserves and risk assessment for banking transactions in foreign currency, as well as to introduce a 5% tax on the purchase of foreign currency or securities denominated in foreign currency.
12. To reduce capital outflow in servicing foreign economic activity stimulate imports and exports for rubles, refrain from imposing restrictions on cross-border transactions in rubles, create conditions for the recognition of the ruble as a reserve currency by the monetary authorities of other countries. At the same time, provide for the allocation of tied ruble loans to states-importers of Russian products in order to maintain trade turnover, use for these purposes credit and foreign exchange swaps. To radically expand the system of servicing settlements in national currencies between enterprises of the CIS states through the CIS Interstate Bank, with other states - using international financial organizations controlled by Russia (IBEC, IIB, EDB, etc.).
II... To stabilize the foreign exchange and financial markets
1.Stop pumping up the financial and foreign exchange market by issuing money. To do this, differentiate interest rates on refinancing operations of commercial banks: to replenish liquidity secured by securities - at rates higher than market rates, and to refinance loans to industrial enterprises secured by rights of claims - at reduced rates with control over their intended use.
2. To increase the supply of foreign currency to restore the obligatory sale of foreign exchange earnings by exporters.
3. To stop speculative excitement in the foreign exchange market to fix the exchange rate of the ruble at a level below the market level with its subsequent adjustment, which is carried out unexpectedly for market participants, depending on the state of the balance of payments.
4. To stop manipulating the financial market to suppress the activities of organized groups of traders, officials of state banks, officials of the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance, who manage the movement of credit resources created by the state for the appropriation of excess profits on financial speculation using insider information, sham deals and monopoly agreements.
5. In order to reduce systemic risks replacement of foreign credit rating agencies, audit and consulting companies with Russian ones in all procedures for making investment decisions by state authorities and banks with state participation.
III... To prevent bankruptcy of strategic enterprises
1.In order to replace external loans Russian corporations Central Bank to conduct a targeted emission of credit resources with their provision to enterprises on the same terms as external creditors through state-controlled banks, which will be entrusted with control over the intended use of loans.
2. To stop the negative consequences of the Ukrainian crisis to centralize the problem assets of Russian creditors in a specially created state credit institution with the issue of long-term government-guaranteed bonds in exchange for the transferred assets.
3. The coordination of work with problem loans, the development of a unified position in relation to default borrowing countries shall be entrusted to the Moscow Club of Investors, which is being created for this purpose.
4. In order to prevent defaults of commercial banks on external liabilities to conduct stress testing with the allocation of stabilization loans on terms similar to external loans.
5. In order to prevent stoppage of equipment leasing, financed from external sources to carry out a targeted emission of credit resources for funding development institutions on similar conditions using the allocated funds for the same purposes with the replacement of foreign equipment with domestic ones where possible.
IV... To deoffshorize the economy
1. Legislatively introduce the concept of "national company" - registered in Russia and not affiliated with foreign persons and jurisdictions. Only such campaigns will provide access to mineral resources, government subsidies, and strategically important activities for the state.
2. To oblige the ultimate owners of shares in Russian strategic enterprises to register their ownership rights to them with Russian registrars.
3. Conclude agreements on the exchange of tax information with offshore companies, prohibit the transfer of assets to those of them that will evade. Denounce existing agreements with them on the avoidance of double taxation.
4. Introduce taxation of all income received from Russian sources with respect to offshore companies under the threat of imposing a 30% tax on all transactions with “non-cooperating” companies.
The implementation of the above measures will create the necessary conditions for expanding credit without the risk of an overflow of money issued and returned from offshore companies to the foreign exchange and financial market for speculative purposes. After their adoption, there is a possibility of non-inflationary expansion of the money supply and remonetization of the economy in order to increase investment and business activity.
V... To end the downturn
1. In order to increase the working capital of industrial enterprises to the optimal utilization of existing production capacities, create a channel for unlimited refinancing of the Central Bank of commercial banks against the collateral of claims to industrial enterprises for already issued loans at a rate not higher than the average profitability of the manufacturing industry with the obligatory condition of providing the received credit resources exclusively to industrial enterprises and a banking margin limit of 1%.
2. In order to increase investment in the modernization of existing production facilities to create a channel for refinancing commercial banks by the Bank of Russia secured by bonds and shares of systemically important enterprises at a rate not higher than the average return on manufacturing assets, with the establishment of commercial banks' responsibility for the targeted use of received credit resources on the basis of project financing principles.
3. In order to increase investments in the creation of new industries and the development of new technologies to form a channel for refinancing development banks and state-controlled commercial banks by the Bank of Russia under the right of claim on the assets being created at 2% per annum and with the condition of using credit resources on the principles of project financing with a margin of no more than 1%.
4. For production growth and investment in industries with low profitability(agriculture, investment engineering) to create mechanisms for subsidizing interest rates at the expense of specialized development institutions. The latter's funds should be transferred to rubles and placed in development institutions.
5. For import substitution create a mechanism for targeted lending for projects to expand existing and create new industries through the provision of government-guaranteed loans from development institutions and commercial banks with their subsequent refinancing by the Bank of Russia at a rate of 2% with a banking margin of 1%.
6. To optimize state participation in the growth of investment activity transform the Reserve Fund into the Development Budget, the funds of which should be spent on stimulating investments in promising areas of economic growth by funding development institutions, bonds of state corporations, and infrastructure bonds.
7. In order to improve the efficiency of investments to create an institute for the assessment, selection and implementation of priority areas of scientific, technical and economic development within the framework of the strategic planning system being formed.
The adoption of the above-described system of measures to stop capital flight and the transition from external sources of credit to internal ones makes it possible to pursue a policy of advanced development based on a multiple increase in investment and innovation activity in key areas of the formation of a new technological order. The renovation of the economy through a forced increase in credit through the state banking system and the return of a part of the capital taken out to offshores in the next 2 years allows to reach the GDP growth rate - by 6-8% per year, investments - by 15% per year, R&D expenditures - by 20 % per year while keeping inflation at one-digit level.
The full text of Glazyev's report, which was read out on September 15 at a meeting of the Security Council of the Russian Federation.
In the liberal media, he was crushed and buried in advance, so I think it will be interesting to read what the domestic liberals are rebelling against.
"US TRYING TO KEEP LEADERSHIP BY DEPLOYING WORLD WAR"
The US aggression against Russia and its seizure of control over Ukraine is an integral part of the global hybrid (chaotic) war waged by Washington with the aim of retaining world leadership in the growing competition with China. Russia was chosen as the direction of the main attack due to a combination of objective and subjective circumstances.
Objectively, the escalation of international military-political tension is due to a change in technological structures and age-old cycles of accumulation, during which a deep restructuring of the economy takes place on the basis of fundamentally new technologies and new mechanisms of capital reproduction. In such periods, as the five-hundred-year experience of the development of capitalism shows, there is a sharp destabilization of the system of international relations, the destruction of the old and the formation of a new world order, which is accompanied by world wars between old and new leaders for dominance in the world market.
Examples of such periods in the past are: the war of the Netherlands for independence from Spain, as a result of which the center of development of capitalism moved from Italy (Genoa) to Holland; The Napoleonic Wars, as a result of which the dominance passed to Great Britain; The First and Second World Wars, as a result of which dominance in the capitalist world passed to the United States and the Cold War between the United States and the USSR, as a result of which the United States seized global leadership due to superiority in the development of a new information and communication technological order based on microelectronics and the establishment of a monopoly on emission of world money.
At the present time, in the wake of the growth of a new technological order, China is pulling ahead, and the accumulation of capital in Japan creates opportunities for moving the center of world capital reproduction to Southeast Asia. Faced with an overaccumulation of capital in financial pyramids and outdated industries, as well as the loss of markets for its products and a drop in the share of the dollar in international transactions, the United States is trying to maintain its leadership by deploying a world war in order to weaken both competitors and partners. In an effort to establish control over Russia, Central Asia and the Middle East, the United States is seeking a strategic advantage in managing the supply of hydrocarbons and other critical natural resources. US control over Europe, Japan, and Korea ensures US dominance in the creation of new knowledge and the development of advanced technologies.
Subjectively, anti-Russian aggression is explained by the irritation of American geopoliticians by the independent foreign policy of the President of Russia towards broad Eurasian integration - from the creation of the EAEU and the SCO to initiatives to form a single economic space from Lisbon to Vladivostok. The United States fears the formation of independent global outlines of expanded reproduction, primarily by the BRICS countries. Russia's historical role in organizing global integration projects predetermines the surge of American Russophobia. At the same time, the demonization of the President of Russia takes place, whom Washington considers the main culprit in the loss of control over Russia and Central Asia, and considers his independent foreign policy as a key threat to its global domination.
The world war unleashed by Washington differs from the previous one by the absence of front-line clashes of warring armies. It is carried out on the basis of the use of modern information and cognitive technologies based on "soft power" and the limited use of military force in the format of punitive operations to punish the enemy who is deprived of the ability to resist. It counts on destabilizing the internal state of the victim country through the defeat of its public consciousness by subversive ideas, the deterioration of the socio-economic situation, the cultivation of various opposition forces, the bribery of the productive elite in order to weaken the institutions of state power and overthrow the legitimate leadership with the subsequent transfer of power to the puppet government.
Such wars are called hybrid: the leadership of the victim country until the last moment does not feel the threat from the enemy, its political will is shackled by endless negotiations and consultations, immunity is suppressed by demagogic propaganda, while the enemy is actively working to destroy the structures of its internal and external security. At the decisive moment, they are undermined with military suppression of the emerging centers of resistance. This is how the United States achieved success in the Cold War against the USSR, and is currently creating funnels of expanding chaos in strategically important regions of the Middle East and trying to regain control over the post-Soviet space.
"ORGANIZATION OF THE MILITARY CONFLICT BETWEEN RUSSIA AND EUROPE IS MOST DESIRABLE FOR THE USA"
Having organized a coup d'état and established full control over the structures of Ukrainian state power, Washington is betting on turning this part of the Russian world into a springboard for military, informational, humanitarian and political intervention in Russia with the aim of transferring a chaotic war to its territory, organizing a revolution and subsequent dismemberment. The calculation is made that the Russian public consciousness lacks immunity to the penetration of agents of influence from Ukraine, which is an integral part of the Russian spiritual and cultural root system. And also that the Russian armed forces will not dare to use weapons of mass destruction against the brotherly people.
By unleashing the Ukrainian-Russian war, the United States is drawing NATO countries into it against Russia, at the same time seeking to weaken the EU with anti-Russian economic sanctions and consolidating its control over Brussels. The organization of a military conflict between Russia and the European NATO countries on the territory of Ukraine is the most desirable scenario for the United States, for which wars in Europe have always been “good”. The unleashing of such a war under the slogan of defense against "Russian aggression" is the main goal of the Russophobic regime established by the Americans in Kiev. As long as it exists, provoking a war against Russia will continue, including through terror against the Russian population of the South-East of Ukraine.
Even if it is possible to stop the American aggression in Ukraine and stop the Ukrainian crisis, there is no doubt that a prolonged and significant deterioration in trade and economic relations between Russia and NATO member states, as well as other countries dependent on the United States (Japan, South Korea, Canada, Australia), is inevitable. ... Given the high external dependence of the Russian economy, this poses serious threats to national security. The most acute of them relate to the risks of freezing foreign exchange assets, disconnecting Russian banks from international payment and information systems, bans on the supply of high-tech products, and deteriorating conditions for Russian exports.
At present, the volume of foreign currency assets of the Russian Federation placed in the jurisdiction of NATO countries is more than 1.2 trillion. dollars, including short-term - about 0.8 trillion. dollars. Their freezing can be partially offset by retaliatory measures against the assets of NATO countries in Russia, which amount to 1.1 trillion. dollars, including long-term - more than 0.4 trillion. This threat would be neutralized if the monetary authorities had timely organized the withdrawal of Russian short-term assets from the US and the EU, which would change the balance in their direction. However, despite the threat of sanctions, the placement of Russian assets in American and European securities continues.
Before it is too late, it is necessary to urgently sell foreign currency assets placed in the liabilities of the United States, Great Britain, France, Germany and other countries participating in the sanctions against Russia. They should be replaced by investments in gold and other precious metals, in the creation of stocks of highly liquid commodity assets, including critical imports, in securities of the EAEU, SCO, BRICS member states, as well as in the capital of international organizations with Russian participation (including the Eurasian Development Bank , CIS Interstate Bank, IIB, BRICS Development Bank, etc.), expanding the infrastructure to support Russian exports. Among the elements of the latter, of great importance is the creation of international exchange platforms for trading Russian commodities in the Russian jurisdiction and for rubles, as well as the creation of international networks for the sale and service of Russian goods with high added value.
With regard to the emerging trend of freezing the private assets of Russian legal entities and individuals, to whom the monetary authorities of Western countries are beginning to create obstacles in returning money to Russia, it is necessary to consider measures to introduce a full or partial moratorium on servicing loans and investments from these countries.
The Central Bank has delayed the creation of a national payment system for servicing bank cards, as well as an international system for the exchange of interbank information, which could secure the Russian financial system from sanctions from the VISA, Mastercard, SWIFT payment and settlement systems located in Western jurisdiction, as has already been mentioned three years ago. Now the creation of such systems of an international level must be put on the agenda of the next meeting of the BRICS countries in Ufa in order to ensure the operation of Russian payment instruments not only within the country, but also abroad (Appendix 1).
It is necessary to fulfill the instructions already repeatedly given by the President of Russia on the deoffshorization of the Russian economy, which creates a supercritical dependence of its reproduction contours on Anglo-Saxon legal and financial institutions and entails systematic losses of the Russian financial system up to 60 billion dollars a year only on the difference in the profitability of borrowed and invested capital. The corresponding proposals were repeatedly sent to the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Russia (Appendix 2). Recently adopted legislative initiatives in this direction are limited to issues of taxation of income transferred abroad, which not only does not eliminate the most important motives for the export of capital, but also stimulates the transfer of taxpayers to foreign jurisdiction.
It is important to achieve the fulfillment of the repeated instructions of the President of Russia on the creation of a national infrastructure of the financial market, including the transition to the use of domestic rating agencies, audit, legal and consulting companies. A hitch in their implementation entails significant losses to the national financial system due to the systematic understatement of credit ratings of Russian borrowers and unfair behavior of Western partners.
"THE BANK OF RUSSIA CONTINUES TO SERVE THE INTERESTS OF FOREIGN CAPITAL"
To pursue an independent policy, you need to manage your economic development. By controlling the reproduction of the national economy, the enemy can manipulate the behavior of the business community, critically influencing the conditions of society's life. The war with him under such circumstances cannot be won, which makes it impossible to conduct an independent foreign policy. It follows from this that the independent foreign policy course of the Russian leadership must be supported by the restoration of national sovereignty and control over the reproduction and development of its own economy.
The most important condition for neutralizing Western sanctions is the transition from external to internal sources of credit. The proposals for solving this problem, repeatedly expressed by Russian scientists and specialists, are categorically rejected by the leadership of the Bank of Russia, which continues in its policy to focus on serving the interests of foreign capital.
Until now, despite the sad experience of the outflow of foreign speculative capital in 1998, 2008 and 2014, the Bank of Russia continues its policy of complete openness of the Russian financial market, not taking appropriate measures, both to counteract the export of capital and to create internal sources of credit. As a result of this policy, the money supply in the Russian economy is formed mainly for foreign liabilities and remains clearly insufficient to finance even simple reproduction of fixed capital. It resulted in a deep external dependence of the Russian economy on the external market, its raw materials specialization, degradation of the investment sector and decline of the manufacturing industry, subordination of the financial system to the interests of foreign capital, in favor of which an annual transfer of $ 120-150 billion is carried out. overestimation of interest rates and limitation of the volume of credit against the background of freezing of external sources of credit entails a contraction of the money supply, a drop in production and investment, as well as a chain of bankruptcies of enterprises with negative social consequences.
The rise of the economy, which, according to the objective state of production factors last year, should have amounted to 3-5% of GDP growth, was stopped by a consistent increase in the key rate of the Central Bank above the level of the average profitability of the real sector of the economy. The increase was made on the basis of the IMF's standard recommendation to reduce inflation by raising the interest rate.
In practice, such a policy leads to the economy falling into a stagflationary trap. Over the past two decades, numerous studies have been carried out indicating that an increase in interest rates and a contraction in the money supply, as a rule, do not lead to a decrease in inflation, but always and everywhere entail a fall in production and investment, as well as a banking crisis and an avalanche of bankruptcies. In addition, in our conditions of demonetization and monopolization of the economy, they are accompanied not by a decrease, but by an increase in inflation.
The second gross mistake of the Central Bank was the transition to free floating of the ruble exchange rate. There is no scientific evidence for its need for inflation targeting. On the contrary, in the conditions of excessive openness of the Russian economy, dependence of its exports on oil prices and a high share of imports in the consumer market, free exchange rate formation is incompatible with ensuring macroeconomic stability. Fluctuations in prices in the world market, an attack by financial speculators or any other change in external economic conditions can upset plans to achieve the target inflation rate.
The combination of these two mistakes led to the fact that, announcing the transition to inflation targeting, the Central Bank achieved exactly the opposite results - inflation doubled, and confidence in the national currency and the regulator itself was undermined for a long time. With a 6-8% potential for annual GDP and investment growth, the Russian economy is artificially driven into a stagflationary trap. The monetary authorities are orienting it towards a 5% drop with 15% inflation. At the same time, an even worse scenario is not ruled out, fraught with default by large Russian borrowers in the event of continued capital outflow and a fall in oil prices. Based on the results of the first quarter of 2015, one can state a sharp deterioration in the conditions for reproduction of the real sector of the Russian economy. The volume of loans issued to him decreased by almost half a trillion rubles, the share of overdue debt increased by 60%. Since January of this year. it became, on the whole, unprofitable. The total profit of enterprises has been halved compared to the pre-crisis 2007.
Against this background, the policy of the Bank of Russia on further contraction of the money supply aggravates these processes and entails a breakdown of the entire system of reproduction and money circulation. A decrease in the level of monetization last year by 10%, this year - by 15-20% will inevitably entail a corresponding drop in investment and production, further deterioration of the financial situation and massive bankruptcies of enterprises in the real sector.
The deterioration of the conditions for the reproduction of the real sector is accompanied by the maintenance of artificial super-profitability of currency speculations. If last year currency speculation on the fall of the ruble gave 30-50% per annum, pulling in ¾ of the loans allocated by the Bank of Russia for refinancing the banking system, now they give 40% on the appreciation of the ruble. In performing foreign exchange REPO operations, the Bank of Russia actually subsidizes foreign exchange speculators who convert foreign currency loans received at 2%, purchase OFZs with a yield of 10%, and then re-buy foreign currency at a depreciated rate. By its policy, the Bank of Russia stimulates currency speculation to the detriment of the real sector. After the ruble appreciated by 1/3, it almost completely lost the gain in price competitiveness obtained as a result of last year's devaluation, which creates conditions for a new devaluation wave.
"DEBT OF RUSSIAN BORROWERS TO WESTERN CREDITORS - 560 BILLION DOLLARS"
As this example shows, the contours of external control of economic and social life, being unconscious, and therefore not perceived and not dismantled, are no less dangerous than other types of "containment" of Russia. In the unconsciousness and gradualness (routine), the peculiarities of the cognitive weapon are manifested, through which Russia is driven into a rut imposed from the outside, institutional and financial traps, create prohibitive threats to national security, the risk of defeat in a hybrid (economic, informational and other, up to hot) war. The introduction of false goals and unsuitable methods into the minds of managers and the methods of work of regulators makes it easy to manipulate them, using them to self-destruct their own economy and subordinate the policy to foreign interests.
These errors (in fact, the contours of external control) are supplemented by another IMF dogma about the inadmissibility of currency restrictions, the adherence to which turns into a gigantic capital flight, encourages corruption, entails the offshorization of the economy and its extreme vulnerability to external threats. The failure of this dogma, focused on ensuring the interests of foreign speculative and offshore capital, corrupt officials and organized crime, has been proven both by scientific research and practical experience. Selective currency regulation and restrictions on cross-border capital movements are practiced by the vast majority of countries, including the United States. At the systemic level, it is being conducted by our BRICS partners, who have been very successful in attracting foreign direct investment. The necessity of currency control to repel speculative attacks and ensure macroeconomic stability has been proven.
If urgent measures are not taken to radically change monetary policy in the direction of creating internal sources of long-term credit and ensuring the stability of the Russian monetary and financial system (Appendix 4), then Western sanctions can stop the reproduction of export-oriented sectors of the Russian economy, as well as paralyze the activities of a number of systemically important banks and corporations. In particular, immediate measures are needed to replace external loans of state corporations and banks with targeted loans provided by the Bank of Russia on similar terms through one of the development institutions or directly against the obligations of borrowers. However, like last year, the Bank of Russia ignores the negative effect of Western sanctions, reinforcing them with its tight monetary policy. Meanwhile, continuing the policy of credit expansion, the monetary authorities of the United States and the EU are easily manipulating the Russian stock market, critically influencing the reproduction of the Russian economy and creating competitive advantages for their corporations, including for the absorption of the most valuable assets. The sustainable development of the Russian economy, its remonetization and modernization, the organization of a long-term loan available for the real sector cannot be ensured without correcting this error.
The total debt of Russian borrowers to Western creditors is $ 560 billion, with foreign exchange reserves of $ 360 billion. This creates the risk of default in the Russian financial system and bankruptcy of many borrowers in the event of a one-time loan request. It can be eliminated by rapid deoffshorization of the economy, which could ensure the cessation of systematic capital outflows and the return of half a trillion dollars of assets under Russian jurisdiction. An important incentive for deoffshorization could be the threat of nationalization of systemically important corporations if their owners refuse to return their assets to the jurisdiction of Russia. As a bonus for the return, you can use the replacement of external loans with internal loans provided on the same terms and on the principles of project financing.
"PRESERVATION OF THE DEPENDENT POSITION OF THE ECONOMY INVOLVES LOSS IN A HYBRID WAR"
The measures listed above do not exhaust the requirements for ensuring economic security, the state of which is unsatisfactory (Appendix 5). Of the most pressing issues requiring immediate solutions, it is necessary to single out: the depressing state of the investment sector, first of all - machine-tool building, instrument-making, electronic industry; degradation of scientific and technical potential due to repeated underfunding of R&D and the actual elimination of industry science and design institutes during the privatization campaign; disorganization of fundamental science due to its administrative constraint as a result of the reform of the Russian Academy of Sciences; growing technological lag in key areas of growth of the new technological paradigm (nano-, bioengineering and information technologies); excessive dependence on foreign technology in critical industries (aviation, pharmaceuticals, information and communication equipment).
To overcome the overcritical external dependence on the import of foreign equipment, large-scale import substitution programs are needed, balanced in material, financial and labor resources. This cannot be done within the framework of the existing system of economic regulation, in which planning methods have been lost, including drawing up balances, target programming, scientific and technical forecasting, and system design. It is necessary to deploy a strategic planning system with centralization of key functions at the level of the President of Russia (Appendix 6).
The main threat to economic sanctions is the isolation of Russia from access to new technologies. If it is not neutralized, in a few years our economy will find itself in a state of irreversible lag in the development of production of a new technological order, the entry of which into a long wave of growth will ensure the rearmament of both industry and the army at a qualitatively new level of efficiency. In order to prevent this lag, it is necessary, on the one hand, to multiply the allocations for R&D in key areas of growth of the new technological paradigm. And, on the other hand, to ensure a radical increase in the responsibility of the heads of development institutions for the effective use of the allocated funds. For this, it is necessary to create a modern system for managing the country's scientific and technological development, covering all stages of scientific research and the scientific and production cycle and focused on modernizing the economy based on a new technological paradigm (Appendix 7).
The proposals described above to strengthen the country's economic security in the context of a global hybrid war being unfolded against Russia are focused mainly on increasing the efficiency of state institutions. Along with this, favorable conditions for entrepreneurial initiative and the growth of private business activity should be maintained. In addition to the proposed measures to form internal sources of cheap long-term credit, they should include a tax maneuver in order to shift the tax burden from the production sector to the consumption sector (Appendix 8), as well as measures to reduce the costs of infrastructure services, primarily the electric power industry, ill-considered reforms which resulted in a multiple increase in the tariff in the interests of monopoly intermediaries (Appendix 9).
The implementation of the listed measures, and, above all, the elimination of the causes of stagflation and the creation of the necessary conditions for economic growth (Appendix 10) should be carried out within the next year. Otherwise, the escalation of economic sanctions against Russia will entail the destruction of reproduction circuits that are locked on the external market and a sharp drop in the level of income of economic entities, the halt of many import-dependent industries, as well as the bankruptcy of many enterprises dependent on external sources of credit. This will entail a tangible drop in the standard of living of the population (by the end of 2015 - to the level of 2003, leveling the positive effect of income growth over 10 years), which will enable our opponents to move on to the next phase of the chaotic war against Russia.
Without long-term goal-setting, without the general systematic work of the state, enterprises and citizens to implement the course for sovereign development in the modern socially and technologically advanced understanding, the role of Russia in the world, the stability of the internal social and economic order cannot be guaranteed.
Clear guidelines should be given to all social groups and public opinion on the objective international and domestic situation of the country. Without information and personnel measures, measures to counter economic threats will not be effective enough.
Russia is placed in the conditions of a struggle for its very independent existence, when the preservation of the dependence of the economy on the Western core of the world financial and economic system entails defeat in the hybrid war unleashed by the United States and the threat of loss of national sovereignty. Neutralization of this threat is impossible without changing the model of “embedding” the country in the world economy, forming sovereign sources and development mechanisms, without building a broad anti-war coalition of countries based on the mechanism of equal partnership, mutual benefit and respect for national sovereignty.
In any case, it is required to give a systemic long-term response to the credit and technological embargo imposed for a long time, since the absence of a response provokes the West to introduce the following embargo packages - trade and payments, including freezing foreign exchange assets, disconnecting Russian banks from international payment and information systems, deteriorating conditions Russian exports.
We are talking about urgent and systemic (interdependent) measures to mobilize the state and society to repel threats to the very existence of Russia as a sovereign state. At the same time, such measures should objectively be comprehensive: not only defense and diplomacy (which refers to the field of geopolitics), but also the restoration of control over internal markets, including currency control, as well as integration with partners, the formation of a layered system of protecting economic interests RF, monitoring and proactive response to growing threats to national security in the field of economics.
The Security Council should play the role of a "civilian General Staff", formulating an adequate strategic plan to counter threats, in the implementation of which all governing bodies of the country's economy are involved.
Dissatisfaction with the current global system with the undivided domination of the United States in it is characteristic of all BRICS countries
HOW BRICS COUNTRIES GET OWN INTERNATIONAL PAYMENT SYSTEM
(this part of the document was drawn up on the eve of the BRICS summit in Ufa - ed.)
Dissatisfaction with the current global system with the undivided domination of the United States in it is characteristic of all BRICS countries and can serve as a cementing basis for the formation of their monetary and financial union based on the gradual weakening of dependence on the dollar-centric system.
1. Formation of a joint international payment system of the BRICS countries, taking into account plans to create a Russian national payment system.
Currently, national payment systems exist in all BRICS countries, and the Chinese national payment system China UnionPay has already become international.
For reference:
China UnionPay (hereinafter - CUP) as the national payment system of China was established in 2002. Its shareholders are more than 200 Chinese financial institutions, the largest of which owns about 6% of the shares. UnionPay (UP) payment cards are now accepted in nearly 150 and issued in over 30 countries. The number of ATMs that accept them exceeded 1 million, and in terms of the number of issued cards (almost 3.5 billion pieces or 34% of the total world issue), СUP is a global leader (Visa accounts for about 25% of the global issue of payment cards, Master Card - 19 %) CUP came to Russia in 2008 after signing an agreement with the Russian Eurofinance Mosnarbank on the joint issue of a card for Russian users.
The task of forming its own national payment system, which is currently being solved in Russia, should be compatible with the well-established international payment systems. This can be done in cooperation with the Chinese side, which will require the conclusion of an appropriate framework agreement. With appropriate steps by other BRICS countries, it is possible to successfully promote on the global market (by countries with a total population of over 3 billion people) a new international payment system with a card compatible with all national payment systems of the BRICS countries. Russia, on the other hand, can become a pioneer in issuing such a card during the formation of a national payment system.
If the issue of issuing a common BRICS payment card is included in the agenda of the Summit in Ufa, the final document may instruct central banks and finance ministries to work out this issue jointly with the BRICS Business Council and submit agreed practical proposals for the next BRICS Summit.
2. Establishment of a joint multilateral investment guarantee agency (such as MIGA in the World Bank Group), which, when determining the size of the insurance premium, will be guided by the risk assessments of the BRICS countries' rating agencies.
3. Development of international standards for determining ratings and the activities of rating agencies in order to reduce systemic distortions in assessing the riskiness of assets quoted on the market in favor of a particular country, as well as ensuring unified international regulation of rating agencies. At the level of the BRICS countries, determine the appropriate certification and licensing procedures for rating agencies, the assessments of which must be internationally recognized. The BRICS Development Bank, which is being formed, can be used for this purpose. A similar approach should be applied to the activities of audit companies and legal consultants.
4. Creation of our own global system of international settlements, an alternative to the SWIFT system that currently dominates in interbank settlements, which will give an impetus to the expansion of the use of GLONASS, as well as the development of fiber-optic communications.
5. Coordination of the rules of action of the national monetary authorities, if necessary, to protect their monetary and financial systems from speculative attacks and suppress the associated turbulence. Contrary to the position of the United States and the IMF, it is advisable to agree on the recognition of the need to create national systems of protection against global risks of financial destabilization, including: a) the institution of reserves for foreign exchange transactions of capital flows; b) tax on income from the sale of assets by non-residents, the rate of which depends on the period of ownership of the asset; c) Tobin tax (including on operations with foreign currencies - capital export tax); d) providing countries with the opportunity to impose restrictions on the cross-border movement of capital on operations that pose a threat to national security.
6. Discussion of a joint initiative to form a system of international regulation of the global information infrastructure.
Taking into account the global importance of the Internet, payment systems, interbank settlement systems, operational computer systems and other communicative means of ensuring the world order, the issues of their administration should be removed from the national jurisdiction to the global level and accepted (as is the case in other important global issues - climate, navigation and others) international agreements and rules excluding discriminatory access to these world infrastructures.
7. Creation of an intelligent and predictive network of scientific institutions of the BRICS countries in order to develop a new architecture of the global monetary and financial system, formulate joint development plans, identify common interests and measures for their implementation, as well as recommendations in the field of integration policy (as opposed to the Washington Consensus, a new paradigm economic policy could be called the BRICS consensus).
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